It has been a rather busy week around the Margarita Lounge. A few things on my mind recently:
1) What the hell is going on with Hollywood celebrities? Ed McMahon, Farrah Fawcett, Michael Jackson, and now Billy Mays all die within a week. Crazy stuff...
2) Cheryl and I went to Naples last night and had a great time. It was really quiet, we had a GREAT steak dinner and got away for a little while. Zach got to stay with Mimi and Papa...
3) Cheryl's sister Dawn is coming into town on Thursday Night for the July 4th weekend. We are both looking forward to seeing her and catching up for a few days.
4) Gotta love 4 day work weeks. With July 4 falling on a Saturday this year, both Cheryl and I get Friday off...3 day weekends rock!
That is all for now...more soon.
Sunday, June 28, 2009
Tuesday, June 23, 2009
Fear not stock lovers
Yeah...I know. You are worried because the S&P 500 went from 666 to 956 in a couple of months and it is now back under 900. Is it time to take profits and go back into cash you ask? My answer there would be a resounding "no". To find out why I say that, just answer these two questions for me....
1) Is the US Economy going into another depression?
2) Are the leading economic indicators better today than 6 months ago?
The correct answers here are no and yes. It is very typical to see conflicting news stories in the very early stages of a bull market. Once the news/earnings are all good and the recovery is underway and everyone wants back in the stock market, the S&P will be over 1000 and by then you have missed the easy money. In the short term I think we will see a low between 810-860 on the S&P 500 (10-15% pullback from the recent highs) but I don't see a return to the doom-and-gloom of early March when all the "experts" on CNBC were talking about nationalizing the banks and the new depression. Funny how silly people can look only three months later.
The good news here is that if you have missed the recent upturn, you can get in now and still see some nice upside in the next 6-12 months. You have already missed the real easy money, but you will still be ahead of all the "experts" still sitting on their hands while the fundamentals of the economy stabilize and start improving later this year and into 2010. Even if you put the money in corporate bonds funds, it's better than sitting in cash or US government bond funds right now. Trust me...
1) Is the US Economy going into another depression?
2) Are the leading economic indicators better today than 6 months ago?
The correct answers here are no and yes. It is very typical to see conflicting news stories in the very early stages of a bull market. Once the news/earnings are all good and the recovery is underway and everyone wants back in the stock market, the S&P will be over 1000 and by then you have missed the easy money. In the short term I think we will see a low between 810-860 on the S&P 500 (10-15% pullback from the recent highs) but I don't see a return to the doom-and-gloom of early March when all the "experts" on CNBC were talking about nationalizing the banks and the new depression. Funny how silly people can look only three months later.
The good news here is that if you have missed the recent upturn, you can get in now and still see some nice upside in the next 6-12 months. You have already missed the real easy money, but you will still be ahead of all the "experts" still sitting on their hands while the fundamentals of the economy stabilize and start improving later this year and into 2010. Even if you put the money in corporate bonds funds, it's better than sitting in cash or US government bond funds right now. Trust me...
Tuesday, June 16, 2009
I agree with Bill Maher? WTF?
Wow. I never thought those words would ever come out of my mouth. For those of you unaware of who Bill Maher is, he is a liberal guy who does some type of show on HBO. Below is the entire five minute rant. Granted...he is still an out-in-left field guy who seems to think that all the world's problems are caused by big corporations. Yeah...all those big, bad corporations that employ all those MILLIONS OF PEOPLE. But I digress. Here is the link....
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HWulnfog20c
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HWulnfog20c
Tuesday, June 09, 2009
"Cash For Clunkers"...say it aint so!
In addition to spending like drunken sailors for the past few months, I just read a story about the $4 Billion bill the Democrats in the House just passed for the "Cash for Clunkers" plan. No... I didn't make that name up...look it up online if you don't believe me!
Here is the jist of the program...if you own a car that is more than 8 years old and a gas guzzler, you can turn it in and get a voucher from the government for between $3,000 and $5,000 toward the purchase of a new car. The only restriction is that you can't buy a car for over $35,000 with the voucher. Am I the only person out there who thinks this is a completely STUPID idea with tons of potential for fraud? I understand the idea and I am sure that Al Gore is jumping for joy on how Obama and the Congress is saving the world here, but this is SO STUPID. Here's why this is such a stupid idea....
Go buy a piece of shit car today for $1,000 from a junkyard that barely runs. You take this car and turn it in for a $3,000 voucher on a new car. You just pocketed a $2,000 handout courtesy of the government towards your new car! I now understand why people cannot live within their means when they see the government set such a great example. Ugh...
Here is the jist of the program...if you own a car that is more than 8 years old and a gas guzzler, you can turn it in and get a voucher from the government for between $3,000 and $5,000 toward the purchase of a new car. The only restriction is that you can't buy a car for over $35,000 with the voucher. Am I the only person out there who thinks this is a completely STUPID idea with tons of potential for fraud? I understand the idea and I am sure that Al Gore is jumping for joy on how Obama and the Congress is saving the world here, but this is SO STUPID. Here's why this is such a stupid idea....
Go buy a piece of shit car today for $1,000 from a junkyard that barely runs. You take this car and turn it in for a $3,000 voucher on a new car. You just pocketed a $2,000 handout courtesy of the government towards your new car! I now understand why people cannot live within their means when they see the government set such a great example. Ugh...
Thursday, June 04, 2009
Market Update
Well, as usual I was wrong on the short side and got crushed. The market just keeps going up and up without a correction to be found. I decided to pull the plug on my FAZ trade around 4.65 this week. As they say...don't fight the momentum. I am getting even more confident that this recovery is the real deal though as the days go by. I guess I could always be wrong on that too, but I just don't see how we are going to head back to 666 on the S&P 500 even with a big negative surprise. Hope all is well out there for all of you....more as I am inspired.....
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