The Margarita Lounge

Sunset

2010-01-08T20:25:00.002-05:00

All good things must eventually come to an end. I want to thank all of my readers over the years, but this will be my last post on the Margarita Lounge. With work and family taking up a larger and larger portion of my time (and even more time with baby #2 due in 4 months) I have decided to call a "wrap" on the Margarita Lounge. You can still reach me on Facebook and Zach's blog will continue to be updated by Cheryl on a regular basis. Thanks again to everyone for making ther Margarita Lounge a fun place to hang out...

Time to sell

2009-10-28T19:44:00.002-05:00

I know I was about two months early on this, but I think today was finally the day I have been looking for. Start taking profits on your stocks if you have them. There is just too much lining up here that makes me nervous that the "big correction" is finally here. Today the NASDAQ fell through trendline resistance, but more importantly closed under this trendline resistance from the March lows. 1050 was a key resistance number on the S&P 500 and it was breached today with an accompanying close under 1050. And maybe most importantly, the SOX (which is 88% correlated to the NASDAQ since 2006) closed under its previous low from a few weeks ago. If you follow technical analysis/Dow Theory, this is a layup...time to sell. Since the techs are the ones that led us up, it figures that they will be the ones to lead us down.

Now, I could be wrong. I like to think I was just early to the show in August but we are way past due for a 10% or even 15% selloff in this market. Art Cashin has been right all along. And I put my money where my mouth is today...I moved about 40% of my IRA into cash and my QQQQ puts are a few pennies away from breakeven. Sometimes the stars just line up.....

Eating Crow as usual

2009-10-25T21:43:00.003-05:00

Well...if the game would have been 30 minutes instead of 60 minutes I would have been the great prognosticator of a victory. Unfortunately, I am a huge loser this weekend in all three football arenas...college football, pro football and fantasy football. I am firmly convinced that the Dolphins would be 4-2 right now if Ted Ginn wasn't on the roster. Sorry Teddy...I am finally turning against you. You have had too many drops in big spots. Zach could catch more passes than you these days....

Predicting a Win on Sunday

2009-10-22T21:34:00.002-05:00

I am predicting a Miami Dolphins victory on Sunday against the Saints. Maybe I am crazy, but I figured it was time to go out on a limb. The Dolphins are coming off two nice victories and are rested after a bye week. Nobody is giving them any chance of winning. If the secondary shows up it will be a good game...if they dont it will be ugly. Worse case scenario they lose...it's not like anyone reads the Margarita Lounge anymore so I wont have many people to grovel to...

BTW...Cheryl has been doing a great job over on Zach's blog...check it out if you haven't in a while. The link is on the right....

Still stupid...

2009-08-27T18:42:00.002-05:00

Yep...I am getting my ass handed to me again. As though it wasn't bad enough that my QQQQ puts are underwater by about 30% in 2 weeks, I am so stupid that I have decided to also buy puts this week on the S&P 500 (SPY Sept 102's averaged in around 2.10). I am so happy that the rest of my investments (the majority that I don't constantly trade) are all long and making money right now.

Glutton for Punishment...

2009-08-05T20:35:00.002-05:00

After swearing off options and getting my ass handed to me on multiple occasions, I am back in the ring with them again. Am I really this stupid? Yep. The tide has to turn eventually, right?

With the big run-up in the NASDAQ since mid-July, in addition to the talking heads on CNBC ALL now saying we are going higher from here, I have decided to go short. I bought some puts on QQQQ over the past couple of days...The Oct 40's to be exact...I am averaged into them at about 2.07 per contract. I figure if we can get a pullback to 36 on QQQQ I should be able to make a nice, quick profit and put that money back in long. Plus, there is a gap around 36 in the chart on July 14/15 and I am a big believer of gap-filling on both the upside and downside. All I can do is lose money, right? I really am stupid...

And now...a lighter moment

2009-07-24T19:37:00.002-05:00

I realize I can get a little too serious at times on the Margarita Lounge. So...today we are going a completely different direction. Check out the following page, courtesy of Scotty "the gun permit owner" Greenough over at the Wysiblog. Make sure to go to the bottom and click on "older entries" for more and more pages of fun. I have been laughing my ass off for five minutes on this one....

www.awkwardfamilyphotos.com

A Great Article on Climate Change...

2009-07-21T19:53:00.002-05:00

Here is a great article on climate change that everyone should read. Don't worry...it's not one of those over-written 6 pagers that is way too heavy....this one will only take a few minutes to read. Thanks to Mr. Leinwol for the article...

http://www.investors.com/NewsAndAnalysis/Article.aspx?id=482572

More Stupidity in Washington

2009-07-17T20:21:00.002-05:00

Even though I am a loyal Republican, when I hear ideas and comments from Democrats I try to listen and understand. Most of the time I still disagree, but at least I try to see the other side of the story. This week, I have twice been completely floored by the level of stupidity of people. And these are the people we trust to lead our country? This is really scary. Here they are:

1) Joe Biden, the Vice President of the United States. A few days ago he told a gathering of AARP members the following: ‘What are you talking about, Joe? You’re telling me we have to go spend m-oney to keep from going bankrupt?’” Biden said. “The answer is yes, that's what I’m telling you.” Imagine what would happen if a person filing for bankruptcy told the bankruptcy judge this...that he needed to spend more money to stop from going bankrupt. The judge would probably tell him he was a moron. If I was the judge, I would lock the dude up for being loco. Yet the Vice President of the United States seems to think this is an acceptable thing to tell the public.

2) Larry Summers, Economic Advisor to the President. According to Larry, the number of searches on Google for "Economic Depression" has fallen substantially since the beginning of the year. This is Larry's proof that consumer confidence in now higher and that things are getting better. Is this guy crazy? Number of searches on Google? I can't beleive someone who is an Economic Advisor to the President thinks this is somehow an important economic indicator. I have been telling people for months that things are looking better, and I use actual leading economic indicators, as do most respected economists.

Both of these situations are really pathetic. It just shows the American public that Barack Obama has no idea what he is doing...no idea whatsoever. He is cut from the same cloth as the other spend and tax Democrats that have been in Washington for decades. He wants to spend money and he is going to tax the wealthy and the small business owner to death to get the money to spend. He is not the "change" that everyone voted for last year (as I have repeatedly said)...he is just another politician pushing his own agenda.

Death of the Democrats?

2009-07-11T22:24:00.002-05:00

This article could spell the beginning of the end for the Democrats in Congress. A huge TAX increase on the wealthiest Americans during a historical recession. Nothing stinks worse that this bill. Tax the wealthy (meaning small business owners in many cases) to fund a joke of a government-run health care system. The tide may have finally turned. I really never thought the Dems in Congress could shoot themselves in the foot so quickly...

http://www.cnn.com/2009/POLITICS/07/10/house.health.care.tax/index.html

A Strange Happening at the Margarita Lounge

2009-07-04T20:53:00.002-05:00

I just had to let everyone know about this as it is the oddest thing that has happened at my house in a long time. Call it a "LOST" moment, but this is a 100% true story about something that happened two hours ago in my house....

It was almost 8pm and Zach is getting ready for bed. Dawn was reading a story to him in his room, they were both sitting on the floor. As I walk into Zach's room, I notice there is a football card on the floor right outside his door. As I am not a football card collector, I thought it was rather odd as I have NEVER seen a football card in my house in almost 6 years of living here. But I didn't actually bend down and pick it up...all I noticed was "Titans" across the top of the card. As Dawn leaves the room she picks up the card and we notice it is a 2004 Steve McNair card.

I have had the heebie-jeebies ever since. I mean...what are the chances of this happening? I have since found out that the card was in one of Zach's books that he just got from John Renko within the last week or two. But what are the chances of this card falling out of a book and onto my floor a few hours after McNair was found shot to death in Tennessee? Weird to say the least...

Whats going on...

2009-06-28T19:52:00.002-05:00

It has been a rather busy week around the Margarita Lounge. A few things on my mind recently:

1) What the hell is going on with Hollywood celebrities? Ed McMahon, Farrah Fawcett, Michael Jackson, and now Billy Mays all die within a week. Crazy stuff...
2) Cheryl and I went to Naples last night and had a great time. It was really quiet, we had a GREAT steak dinner and got away for a little while. Zach got to stay with Mimi and Papa...
3) Cheryl's sister Dawn is coming into town on Thursday Night for the July 4th weekend. We are both looking forward to seeing her and catching up for a few days.
4) Gotta love 4 day work weeks. With July 4 falling on a Saturday this year, both Cheryl and I get Friday off...3 day weekends rock!

That is all for now...more soon.

Fear not stock lovers

2009-06-23T18:45:00.002-05:00

Yeah...I know. You are worried because the S&P 500 went from 666 to 956 in a couple of months and it is now back under 900. Is it time to take profits and go back into cash you ask? My answer there would be a resounding "no". To find out why I say that, just answer these two questions for me....

1) Is the US Economy going into another depression?
2) Are the leading economic indicators better today than 6 months ago?

The correct answers here are no and yes. It is very typical to see conflicting news stories in the very early stages of a bull market. Once the news/earnings are all good and the recovery is underway and everyone wants back in the stock market, the S&P will be over 1000 and by then you have missed the easy money. In the short term I think we will see a low between 810-860 on the S&P 500 (10-15% pullback from the recent highs) but I don't see a return to the doom-and-gloom of early March when all the "experts" on CNBC were talking about nationalizing the banks and the new depression. Funny how silly people can look only three months later.

The good news here is that if you have missed the recent upturn, you can get in now and still see some nice upside in the next 6-12 months. You have already missed the real easy money, but you will still be ahead of all the "experts" still sitting on their hands while the fundamentals of the economy stabilize and start improving later this year and into 2010. Even if you put the money in corporate bonds funds, it's better than sitting in cash or US government bond funds right now. Trust me...

I agree with Bill Maher? WTF?

2009-06-16T19:26:00.002-05:00

Wow. I never thought those words would ever come out of my mouth. For those of you unaware of who Bill Maher is, he is a liberal guy who does some type of show on HBO. Below is the entire five minute rant. Granted...he is still an out-in-left field guy who seems to think that all the world's problems are caused by big corporations. Yeah...all those big, bad corporations that employ all those MILLIONS OF PEOPLE. But I digress. Here is the link....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HWulnfog20c

"Cash For Clunkers"...say it aint so!

2009-06-09T19:37:00.004-05:00

In addition to spending like drunken sailors for the past few months, I just read a story about the $4 Billion bill the Democrats in the House just passed for the "Cash for Clunkers" plan. No... I didn't make that name up...look it up online if you don't believe me!

Here is the jist of the program...if you own a car that is more than 8 years old and a gas guzzler, you can turn it in and get a voucher from the government for between $3,000 and $5,000 toward the purchase of a new car. The only restriction is that you can't buy a car for over $35,000 with the voucher. Am I the only person out there who thinks this is a completely STUPID idea with tons of potential for fraud? I understand the idea and I am sure that Al Gore is jumping for joy on how Obama and the Congress is saving the world here, but this is SO STUPID. Here's why this is such a stupid idea....

Go buy a piece of shit car today for $1,000 from a junkyard that barely runs. You take this car and turn it in for a $3,000 voucher on a new car. You just pocketed a $2,000 handout courtesy of the government towards your new car! I now understand why people cannot live within their means when they see the government set such a great example. Ugh...

Market Update

2009-06-04T19:14:00.002-05:00

Well, as usual I was wrong on the short side and got crushed. The market just keeps going up and up without a correction to be found. I decided to pull the plug on my FAZ trade around 4.65 this week. As they say...don't fight the momentum. I am getting even more confident that this recovery is the real deal though as the days go by. I guess I could always be wrong on that too, but I just don't see how we are going to head back to 666 on the S&P 500 even with a big negative surprise. Hope all is well out there for all of you....more as I am inspired.....

The Margarita Lounge will live on!

2009-05-25T17:37:00.003-05:00

I am proud to report that I have decided to keep the Margarita Lounge alive! With my regular use of Facebook, I have recently felt that the Margarita Lounge would end up a relic of the past. I have decide that they are just two very different animals.

Facebook tends to be good for quick updates of what's going on in my life. But I think the Margarita Lounge is a better venue for any "detail" stories as well as my occasional long rants about things in the world that piss me off. Thank you to everyone who told me I should keep it going.....

Rain Rain Go Away

2009-05-23T19:51:00.004-05:00

Well, I guess we needed to get a little rain....but, we're tired of it now. Seems as though it's been raining for an entire week straight. Our entire back yard was literally under water this afternoon - the good news is that we won't have to turn the sprinkler system on for a week or so.

Market Update

2009-05-20T19:56:00.002-05:00

Sorry for the lack of recent stock market commentary, loyal readers. I realize that most of you are probably not interested in this, but since I am and its my blog I can do what I want! Ha Ha.

Seriously though, I am VERY impressed with the recent move in the market off the March 6 lows. I can say with 95% certainty that we will not see the March lows again. The VIX is down below the Sept/Oct levels, yield spreads on bonds are tightening, and there is a growing realization that this is not going to be the "Great Depression #2". For those with a short memory, please read my April 6th entry where I mention hitting 900 on the S&P 500...I think we closed today at 903. I love tooting my own horn when I am right!

Long term I am still a big bull on our economy and the market. It wouldn't surprise me to see the S&P 500 near 1000 by the end of the year...maybe even a little higher. That being said, I think there is a strong case for an aggressive trader to make a few bucks here going short. After all, we have had a 35% run and no major pullback(considered 10% or more)...a situation that makes me a little nervous. So...I bought some FAZ today around 5. I have done this recently a few times and have been crushed, so you think I would learn, right? But I think I am right this time. I figure if I can get 6.5 to 7 out of it I will be happy...then I can go back into the market long at a cheaper level than we are right now and ride the wave into the end of the year. You could also do this with TZA, which I did for a few of my more aggressive clients today between 25-26.

Janes Addiction/NIN concert

2009-05-09T11:47:00.002-05:00

After being a big fan of both Nine Inch Nails and Jane's Addiction for years, I was needless to say excited when this concert rolled around...there was NO WAY I was going to miss it considering the opening date of the tour was 15 minutes from my house. Last Night was as close to a religious experience as I get. While I would have liked to see both of them play longer (the West Palm Beach noise ordinance makes concerts end by 11pm) I was still very happy to see them play live finally. And considering it is Trent Reznor's last tour as NIN I am glad I got to see him before he hangs 'em up.

I posted a few links below to a guy who goes by bootlegbyeddie that recorded the concert. I have never met this guy and the audio is a little rough, but if you want to get an idea of what it was like last night, here are two songs from Janes and two from NIN for your listening and viewing pleasure:

NIN WISH

NIN HEAD LIKE A HOLE

JANES PIGS IN ZEN

JANES JANE SAYS (last song of the show)

End of the road for the Margarita Lounge?

2009-04-27T19:26:00.003-05:00

After a few months of thought, I am considering shutting down the Margarita Lounge for good. I have found it harder and harder to get the time to update it on a regular basis. That and the fact that Facebook is now the preferred networking site has brought me to this point.

So...does anyone out there still read the ol' Margarita Lounge or should I throw it on the trash heap? Of course, Zach's site will remain as he is the man.

Another good article

2009-04-18T05:52:00.003-05:00

Here is a great article everyone should read. I think it is an appropriate thing to talk about these days. This guy's point is right on. Didn't we get into this financial problem by borrowing too much money...now the government is doing the same. This article is a good one in that it shows what could happen down the road. Once you get past the first few paragraphs (which is a little over-the-top in the patriotism/the US is the best area) it gets better.

http://www.cnn.com/2009/POLITICS/04/16/shapiro.entrepreneurs/index.html

Time to get in....

2009-04-06T19:30:00.002-05:00

For any of you out there who are wondering my thoughts on the market these days, the title of this post pretty much sums it up. Don't wait for the pullback to get back in because you will miss it. If you are crying at the value of your 401k, please resist the urge to go buy CDs or move it all into the money market. We have had a small rally the past month but dont listen to the talking heads saying to sell now and take what you can get. Hang in there because we have seen the worst of the market.

Gold is going to tank...the VIX is going to break 40...and when things look better it is going to be too late, you will have missed it. No longer do we rally one day and fall off a cliff for the next three. We have already priced in a major recession...any good or even moderate economic news is gonna send us higher...just look at all that money on the sidelines right now. When that money starts flowing in (and it already is), we are going much higher. The world is not going to end, we will eventually return to growth, and the United States will live to fight another day...trust me. When GM files for bankruptcy in the next few months, the market won't even budge because it is already priced in.

So you think I am crazy? Maybe. But I have put my money where my mouth is...in the market. I am 100% invested in the market. I had a 401k rollover check from Wachovia come in a few days ago and it went right into the market without a second thought. What are you waiting for? If you have at least a two year investment horizon (which means pretty much everyone does) you should be in or getting into this market now. If you are already in, relax...it will get better. End of sermon grasshoppers...and dont say I didn't tell you so when the S&P 500 is at 900 and you missed the 35% upside off the bottom....

More socialism coming...

2009-04-04T20:17:00.002-05:00

Here is another article I read today about our current financial crisis. This type of stuff is really scary stuff. I know...I sound like a paranoid person, right? I'm not so sure anymore. I mean...do you really want to government having more control over you in future years? I know I sure don't. This type of stuff is a very slippery slope....

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123879833094588163.html

The road to Socialism...

2009-03-31T20:12:00.002-05:00

I could go on and on for many paragraphs how outright wrong this bill is on so many levels. But, I just decided to let everyone read it and decide for themselves. If this is the way we are going with this government, I am VERY afraid of what the next step is....

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/politics/Beyond-AIG-A-Bill-to-let-Big-Government-Set-Your-Salary-42158597.html

JANES and NIN together this summer!

2009-03-18T20:24:00.003-05:00

Can you tell I am excited? I just found out last night that one of my favorite bands of all time, Janes Addiction (all the originals) will be touring this summer with Trent Reznor and his crew, otherwise known as Nine Inch Nails. As a college student from the early 90s, I was always a big fan of both groups and have never had a chance to see either one live. Well...the day has finally come! The date is May 8th, which is the first date of the 2009 summer tour...right here in West Palm Beach! And to make things even better, it's on a Friday Night. And I am already hooked up with some sweet pavilion seats and a VIP pass courtesy of my bud Joel. And as if things couldn't get any better, they do. The week before this concert I get to see 311 at Sunfest...another favorite that I have never seen live. Life is good...

My Hero

2009-03-15T20:15:00.003-05:00

I was reminded today that my husband is my hero, so I feel obliged to dedicate a post to him. Lucy was barking this afternoon while I was getting Zach ready for a post-car-wash bath. I looked out the back door and saw a 10 foot snake on the screened patio....well, okay, it might not have been quite 10 feet long...maybe 3 or 4 feet, but in my mind it was huge!

I should mention that I HATE snakes...I don't care if they are caged, or on TV, whatever - I don't have any desire to look at them or think about them. Had my hero not "taken care of" the snake, I would not open the back door, let the dog into the back yard, let Zach on the patio, had dinner on the porch, etc for a VERY LONG TIME. Not to mention the countless nights of nightmares I would've endured.

So - my hero got his trusty shovel and chased the snake out into the yard....I won't go into details but I will just say that the snake has been "dealt with" and I sit here now with the back sliding door open and a nice breeze blowing in. At least for one day my husband is being held upon a pedestal.

On the way soon...

2009-03-14T06:28:00.001-05:00

I have wondered how long it would take for us to come up with this. Looks like the time frame is two to three years. Sweet!

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-1161274/Scientists-develop-mobile-phone-battery-charged-just-10-seconds.html

Chugga Chugga Chugga

2009-03-08T16:54:00.003-05:00

The Party Train made it until 11pm on Saturday evening - pretty impressive considering that he and Todd got started early afternoon during lunch at Bradley's. Above you are viewing Sean's attempt at reddening the other side :)

He's got another day in paradise before heading back to Dreary Erie on Tuesday...then it will be time for the Margarita Lounge to prepare for the arrival of Jeff & Ta-Ta.

Party Train Fizzles on Friday Night!

2009-03-07T13:53:00.003-05:00

We got a big let-down from the Party Train last night, who is in town for a long weekend. We were expecting the train to be chugging half the night - instead, he crashed at 9:30pm after a day of sun (obviously), several beers and some pizza. Perhaps tonight the Party Train will be able to get out of the station!!

What the HELL is he thinking

2009-03-05T21:41:00.003-05:00

Ok...everyone who knows me knows that I dont like President Obama. But I was willing to give everyone the benefit of the doubt on certain things. I have finally reached my breaking point as this guy obviously has NO CLUE about what is going on in this economy and also has no solutions except nice cute speeches. Speeches are great, but there is a time to talk and then there is a time to actually do something...this would be the latter.

The economy is in the recessionary toilet. The stock market is tanking daily due to no confidence in the system. And this guy is out there talking about how important health care reform is and how it cant wait? WHAT THE HELL IS HE DOING? It's like the guy is still campaining. OK dude...we get it...you are now the President and you are an important person. Now DO SOMETHING productive. Health care and Energy are important issues, but they can wait a little while. At least Bush and Paulson acknowledged they were working on it...Obama doesn't seem to really give a shit. Maybe if he acted like he cared people would feel better. I know feeling better wont cause the economy to recover, but at least it would be a start....

A little perspective....

2009-02-16T12:52:00.002-05:00

Below is a pretty good "perspective" article for all those who want the real scoop on the recession. Please note that I said "recession" and not "depression" and all the other crap you are all hearing in the news recently. As usual, the media (and Obama) are playing on the doomsday scenario that this is the worst thing since the Great Depression and all is lost if we don't immediately spend a bunch of money.

Does anyone remember a little thing called the TARP last year? This was the $700 Million bank bailout that made all the news last year. Bush and Paulson argued that all this money needed to be spent immediately to avoid impending doom. The Democrats decided to only let him spend half...then grovel before Congress for the other half. Now, 4-5 months later the Democrats are saying it needs to be done right now and the Republicans are saying "not so fast". WTF?

In any case, without blowing a gasket and going on a political rage here is the article...

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123457303244386495.html

Beware of Sinking Ship

2009-02-13T16:58:00.003-05:00

As you all know, I recently moved my practice from Wachovia Securities to Stifel Nicolaus. I was just tired of getting lied to, having my pay and benefits cut, and having to explain to my clients why they had to pay higher fees. It's really too bad because AG Edwards was such a great place to work for many, many years. When Wachovia took over almost two years ago, everything started going south. So, me and my cohort in crime Kris decided to bail out and go elsewhere in early January. Best move I have ever made.

Well...two more parachuters jumped out of the plane today. I wish them (Mark and Roger) all the best in their new careers at Raymond James. Unfortunately, it looks like Wachovia Securities is a sinking ship these days...especially the Boynton Beach branch. They are losing brokers faster than they can count, Wachovia management doesn't seem to give a shit about them, and rumors are they are seeking another buyer for the brokerage unit...the fouth in two years. It is really sad to see what has happened to a 120 year-old well respected firm. RIP AG Edwards....

My New Employer

2009-01-10T07:11:00.004-05:00

Once again I apologize for my lack of postings...since the Atlantis trip there has been lots going on, including a trip to Virginia where I got to go skiing for the first time in 10 years and Zach got to see his first snow. But I can honestly say I have been distracted ever since the Atlantis trip with the biggest life-changing event of my life (outside of my wedding day and the birth of Zach). I have decided to leave Wachovia recently and move on to "greener pastures" at Stifel Nicolaus. I realize many of you are probably saying "Who the hell is Stifel Nicolaus?" They are a small regional broker-dealer headquartered in St. Louis.

Lets think about this for a minute as this all sounds familiar. Regional broker-dealer in St. Louis who has been around for 120 years and has a great reputation. Sounds like AG Edwards before Wachovia bought it and completely destroyed it. Bingo! I am hoping that my move to Stifel will work out as well as my career with Edwards was, at least until Wachovia showed up.

Headin' to Atlantis

2008-12-04T20:44:00.002-05:00

Cheryl, Zach and I are heading out tomorrow morning to the Bahamas for a nice long relaxing weekend. Cheryl's cousin Megan is getting married on Saturday afternoon. None of us has ever been to the Bahamas and we are looking forward to a little rest and relaxation. The return flight is on Monday...wish us luck!

Some people should not be allowed to reproduce...

2008-11-21T16:37:00.002-05:00

We all know that celebrities seem to give their children odd names at times, but this one has to take the cake. The superficial had this on their front page today and I have been laughing my ass off about it for 5 minutes. Poor kid....

http://thesuperficial.com/2008/11/ashlee_simpson_has_a_boy.php

Look Out Below

2008-11-06T17:59:00.003-05:00

So...we are now two days into the "new world" of the savior of the free world Barack Obama. Too bad the market is down almost 1000 points in these two days. I guess higher taxes on businesses and increased regulation doesn't sit too well with investors....hmmm, who would have thought?

After two days of mourning and vomitting at the stupidity of the voting public in the United States, I have realized that there is a light at the end of the tunnel. The light is known as "the blame game". It is something that Democrats have become experts at for 8 long years...blaming every bad thing in the world on George Bush and the "evil" Republicans. Now it is my turn for a little payback, at least for the next four years. Any economic news, natural disaster, wars, etc is now the fault of the savior Barack Obama. I feel much better now! Cheers everyone....

Why I am voting for McCain

2008-11-01T01:00:00.000-05:00

There is a little expression we use on Wall Street when talking to clients about the gyrations of the stock market..."Beware the crowd at extremes". This means that the stock market is a very dangerous place when people are acting on emotion and not facts. Nothing could be closer to the truth than during this presidential election...emotion is overriding reason and sound judgement. Here is what I am talking about:

On one hand is a guy who has no experience and is completely unproven. This guy has a group of VERY questionable associates that he used to hang out with. His views on the issues are very liberal with some bordering on radical. He "goes with the flow" and follows his political party's wishes to the letter. But he is great at making speeches.

On the other hand you have a guy with lots of experience who is proven. This guy has never associated with radicals, much less a bunch of them. He fought for his country and is considered moderate on many issues. He has gone against his own party on numerous issues where he thought they were wrong. Like most people, he is not a great orator.

We all know where I am going here...I support John McCain for President. I know this isn't the "cool" thing to do...it's what I believe is the best decision given the two choices. I don't support McCain because I like him a whole lot. I don't support him because I agree with him on all the issues. I will vote for McCain because I am making a rational decision based on the facts and I think he would be a better President.

I realize that many people are trying to link McCain and Bush just because they are both Republicans. But if you do the research, you will see that McCain and Bush are only similar on a few issues. In fact, during the 2000 Presidential primary, it is no secret that they did not see eye-to-eye on many issues.

I encourage everyone to get out there on Tuesday and vote. But I ask you not to make your decision based on anger, emotion, a good speech, or what is "cool" to do. If you do this, you are selling your stocks right at the bottom of the market before the rally. Make your own decision based on the issues and your feelings as to who would do a better job leading us through the next four years....

Oh no.....

2008-10-30T18:55:00.003-05:00

No, I'm not thinking about Barack Obama and how absolutely scary it is that he could be President shortly. My Sony bigscreen's picture went on the fritz yesterday morning and I now realize how crappy life is without a bigscreen. I am so spoiled. I am also turning 35 tomorrow, which doesn't seem to bother me nearly as much as the TV issue. More on the political statements this weekend, grasshoppers!

Investing 101

2008-10-17T19:50:00.002-05:00

Let me know who made what money this week on my suggestion. Hopefully SOMEONE out there made a few bucks cause I made a killing this week....I bought QLD at 30 on Friday last week and sold it Tuesday at 42. Bought it back yesterday at 30.50 and sold it today at 36. Sure I got lucky this time, but with the way things have been in the market lately, I was way overdue for some good luck.

For those longer-term investors out there (which I normally am, by the way...this was a rare trading move that I usually don't have the balls to do), here is a great opinion piece that Warren Buffett wrote in today's New York Times...this is exactly the way you should be thinking right now if you are a long-term investor....

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/17/opinion/17buffett.html?_r=1&ref=opinion&oref=slogin

Take the Money and Run

2008-10-13T19:40:00.003-05:00

So you thought I was crazy on Friday, huh? Man do I love it when I am right! Granted, it doesn't always happen, but it sure feels good when I pick it right and actually act on it. Yep...I followed my own advice on Friday and bought QLD at 30 and DDM at about 31. Now my fellow grasshoppers... here is another lesson in making money and it goes something like this...

Bulls make money, Bears make money, and pigs get slaughtered. Don't go out and be a big pig and try to double your money on these things...take some profits. In my case, I think there might be a little more upside follow through tomorrow morning, but I plan on selling at least half of my investment tomorrow. These types of rallies don't happen often, the economy still sucks, and if you can make a 25% or 30% return in 2 days that is 2 years of good work...sell and live to fight another day. Either that or sell half and set a downside stop on the rest at maybe 20 or 25% gain...you can always buy back in when it comes back down.

School is now out.....good luck Daniel-son....

Time to Buy

2008-10-09T19:30:00.002-05:00

Yeah...I know...are you friggin NUTS Todd? Why in the hell would I want to buy any stock right now? My response to that is...why not? The market is ridiculously oversold, pessimism is high, the future looks grim. All classic signs of at least a short term bottom in the market. This situation just screams for someone to crush all the shorts out there.

So, if you are a long-term investor (3 years or longer) and have extra cash laying around that you don't plan on needing in the near future, you need to back up the truck here and buy. I know this runs opposite to what the emotional part of your brain says, but your emotional brain gets you in trouble when you are trying to make a rational decision. Sure, you might lose money over the next day or two, but I am guessing you will make money in the next week when we get the huge oversold rally that is just waiting out there....I wouldn't be surprised to see a short term oversold 1000 point rally by next week.

So here is what you do grasshopper. Go buy some QLD between 32-33, DDM between 33-34 or SSO between 29-30 tomorrow morning and dont look at it for a week. Look at it next Friday and see how much money you have made. Could I be wrong...sure. But I am gonna bet I am right. I am even gonna write a reminder on my calendar for next Friday to see if I was right or wrong so I can say "I told you so". Even if I am wrong, does anyone out there really think the stock market won't be higher than it is now in 3 years? The clouds will part, the hurricane will wind down and life will go on. Time to step up to the plate people...

Some Political Humor

2008-10-09T19:26:00.001-05:00

Thanks to my fellow stressed out Financial Advisor Kris for this one. No matter what side of the political fence you sit, this one is hilarious. Enjoy.

http://www.peteyandpetunia.com/VoteHere/VoteHere.htm

Some Perspective on the Markets/ Economy

2008-10-04T13:08:00.003-05:00

With all the crap that is going on these days in the financial markets, I figured I would post something to give you, my loyal readers, my perspective on things. As with anything, nobody is ever right 100% of the time on everything, but I think these assumptions are at least in the ballpark.

1) The bailout/rescue bill. I think this bill will help the economy down the road, but it isn't going to help in the near-term. While I applaud Paulson for the effort, this doesn't magically solve all our problems today. As much as we love instant gratification in our country, we will need some patience on this one. I don't see this thing up-and-running at full speed for a few months.....meaning early 2009. Until then, things will probably not be getting better.

2) The stock market. Short term(meaning Monday) I think we are going to see another really bad day. I think we will see the Dow Jones go under 10,000 in the next week or two. More companies will go under in the near future. But remember one thing on the stock market...the market always turns around before the economy does...ALWAYS!

3) Credit. If you live on credit, you better learn how to tighten your belt. The days of easy borrowing is gone for a while. While I am not sure how bad it will get, don't plan on borrowing except for the major ticket items like cars and houses. Everyone had a big credit party the last 5 years and the hangover is finally here....and it's looking like a bad hangover.

4) Investments. First of all, DO NOT panic and do something stupid like pull your money out of the bank and put it under the mattress. The world is not going to end tomorrow. The banking system isn't going to fail and we are not going to end up resembling a third world country. If you are young (meaning you have at least 10 year to retirement) do not pull all your money out of stocks and go into cash in your 401k right now. I know this seems like a smart thing to do, but it isn't. Here's what I mean....

If you move to cash, you are going to get what...2% per year on your cash? Lets say this is a bad slowdown and it takes two years for the market to turn around. You will get a 4% return in cash over two years. You might very well lose more money by leaving things as they are in stocks. BUT...when things turn around, it is not unusual to have a 20% move up in the stock market in a recovery. This up move gets you right back on track to your long-term goals. Plus...you are buying lots of shares of those mutual funds at cheap prices now. Remember...you don't need this money today...you need it later so chill out and let things go.

If you are closer to retirement, also do not panic. Just start adding your monthly 401k contributions into bond funds now instead of stock funds. This will weight you more conservatively as you approach retirement in the next few years. If you are already retired, you probably don't (or shouldn't) have all your money in stocks. Everyone is different, but a 50/50 mix of stock and bonds is a good starting point for someone entering retirement right now.

REMEMBER...the world is not going to end next week...have a cool head and just ride things out. If you feel like you need more security, add a little more you your savings account or money market just to have that extra cushion. If your 401k balance freaks you out, just don't look at it...put it right in the drawer when it shows up in the next few weeks, cause it's gonna be an ugly one.

DISCLAIMER: My posting wasn't meant to freak anyone out, I just want to make sure everyone realizes something...things aren't going to turn around immediately now that the rescue bill has passed. There will be some tough times coming for everyone, but things will improve and life will go on in the end. And (hopefully) people will learn from their mistakes and not repeat them...

A Sad Day....

2008-09-16T18:56:00.003-05:00

Why was yesterday such a sad day? I know what you guys are thinking...the stock market was down 500 points yesterday and we are in the middle of the largest financial crisis since the great depression...Fannie and Freddie go under, followed by Lehman Brothers and now maybe even insurance giant AIG. Surprisingly, that is NOT why yesterday was such a sad day.

Yesterday marked the passing of Richard Wright, one of the original founding members of Pink Floyd. Since my college days I have been a huge fan of Floyd and while I was probably a little late to the show, I feel that they were one of the most influential and important bands in the history of rock music. To this day I still kick myself for not going to the Pink Floyd Division Bell tour in Cleveland in the early 90s. RIP Richard.....

http://www.cnn.com/2008/SHOWBIZ/Music/09/15/obit.wright.ap/index.html

Political Stuff

2008-09-04T18:41:00.002-05:00

Yep...it's that time again. It happens every four years. I get really irritated for a few months every time I turn on the TV. Must be a presidential election year! As you all know, I am a McCain/Palin supporter and a Republican. I am not a huge fan of McCain, but I have to be honest and say I am really impressed with Sarah Palin as the VP choice. Obviously, not everyone out there feels the same as I do but thats ok...someone has to be right and someone has to be wrong...

Below I have posted a rant from last week that was posted on youtube by Diddy. Yes...THAT Diddy....Puff Daddy..or P. Diddy..or whatever the hell his name is these days. I know there was some type of half-assed apology this week, but today was the first time I saw it and it makes me want to vomit. I could go on about how inappropriate and hateful and pathetic this is, but I think it is best left to Diddy himself to stick his foot in his own mouth. Mr. Obama needs to tell Diddy to chill out because this type of ridiculous shit just shows how ignorant he is. Make sure you watch the whole thing as the last 20-30 seconds is the most bizarre/stupid part....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3UQ_ZO636HI

Must have just been a typo....

2008-09-04T18:30:00.002-05:00

Did anyone see the story about the mayor of Detroit today? I guess this guy is being forced to resign over some rather "questionable" things he did. I have attached the article here from CNN:

http://www.cnn.com/2008/CRIME/09/04/detroit.mayor/index.html

Does anyone notice something odd about this article? No? It would be easy to not notice this while reading the article, but there is no mention of his party affiliation...especially during our present "politics all the time" news schedules. One guess what party he belongs to? Yep, thats right...he's a Democrat.

It's funny how public officials like Larry Craig and Mark Foley are immediately revealed as Republicans when they do something wrong, but somehow this guy avoids being labeled a Democrat when he is a scumbag. I actually had to go to Wikipedia to find out which party he belonged to. I also read two other articles from different sources...they also strangely avoided mentioning he was a Democrat. Where was the only place I saw an article showing he was a Democrat? Yep...Fox News. At least Rupert's boys are being honest....

Hanna, Ike and the Wagon

2008-09-01T19:53:00.001-05:00

The good news is that Gustav missed us here in South Florida...just a little rain and some small breezes. Unfortunately, I see that Hurricane Hanna and the newly formed Tropical Storm Ike are both heading this way in the next week...Hanna around Thursday and Ike toward the weekend. Just to be safe, I ran out to Home Depot to pick up a few needed Hurricane preparedness items.

As for Cheryl and I, we had a great time last night in Jupiter...dinner was excellent as expected and the drinks went down pretty smooth too. That being said, Cheryl and I have decided to jump on the wagon for a couple of weeks to dry out. We seem to have been enjoying a few too many beers and bottles of wine recently and have been feeling crappy/lazy the last few weeks. I am sure everyone knows that "stuck in a rut" feeling and we both have decided to chill on the beverages for a while. Lets hope that Hanna and Ike stay away from the Margarita Lounge the next week or we might be falling off that wagon...there isn't a whole lot to do on those stormy nights without power when you know you don't have to work the next day....wish us luck!

Labor Day Weekend (whats happenin lately)

2008-08-31T10:31:00.003-05:00

Pattymelt is in town for the Labor Day weekend visiting her favorite grandson Zach. She came in yesterday and seems to be enjoying her time with the big man. With Patty around, Cheryl and I are taking off this afternoon for a little alone time. We are heading up to the Jupiter Beach Resort (about 40 minutes north of here) for the night and plan on having dinner tonight at Jettys.

I see Gustav is gonna kick the hell out of the Gulf Coast sometime tomorrow. It looks like this one could be worse than Katrina in terms of winds. (remember Katrina weakened right before landfall) Hopefully it will hit a less populated area west of New Orleans.

As for us, we are watching Tropical Storm Hanna a little closer these days as we are in the "cone" as of now. While the hurricane center says it will miss us, I am always a little skeptical of these last minute turns....if they miss the timing by 6-8 hours we are gonna get hit. The good news is that it is at least 4 days out and a lot can happen in the interim period.

I see that McCain chose Sarah Palin as his running mate, which I think is great. Sure, she doesn't have much experience, but neither does Obama...so I see that as a wash. At least she has some executive experience being a governor, which is something that Obama can't say. Her choice as VP should definitely help McCain appeal to the Republican base as she is pretty conservative. And her personal story is pretty cool...

Looks like the Dolphins are now down to the 53 man roster as they did final cuts yesterday. Reagan Mauia and Justin Peele were the big cuts, neither which would be considered a big surprise in my book. I like the fact that they kept 6 receivers, most of which are young guys. I also like the fact that they just gave Ricky Williams a one-year extension as I think he is gonna have a big year in 2008...as long as he stays away from Zulu Puff.

Well..thats it for now Margarita Drinkers. Wishing everyone a safe and happy Labor Day weekend....stay outta trouble and don't let your meat loaf.....

Goodbye Travis Daniels

2008-08-20T18:26:00.002-05:00

It looks like Parcels and the Dolphins are pretty much cleaning house this year. First it was Zach Thomas...then Jason Taylor...then Jay Feely. Today it was Travis "I get burned constantly" Daniels. As you can tell, I am actually excited about him leaving as I never liked the guy as a player. He was a fourth rounder and we got a draft choice for him, so thats a gain in my book.

The bad news is that he went to Cleveland....sorry Hickman. Your GM must be blind and stupid because Travis Daniels is NOT the solution for you guys problems in the secondary. Trust me...you'll see in the first game he plays.

Speaking of football, I have decided to get involved in Cheryl's Fantasy Football group this year so everyone wish me luck...the draft is on Monday Night and I'm getting excited!

Why Obama Scares me

2008-08-08T21:07:00.003-05:00

Some of you know that I have been stewing over this post for the last week or so. I figured it would be best if I didn't post my thoughts on Mr Obama's economic plan immediately so I have let it stew for a week. I've had a couple glasses of wine tonight and figured it needed to come out...so here goes....

I am not a fan of Barack Obama. I am also not a huge fan of John McCain, but I definitely see McCain as the lesser of two evils in the 2008 Presidential Election. Last weekend I was reading some articles on Obama and McCain's economic ideas and quite frankly, Obama's ideas scared the hell out of me. As I consider myself a well informed person on the economy, here is my opinion on three of Mr Obama's economic ideas that scared me the most:

1) Extend unemployment benefits to more people. What? We live in a consumer society where approximately 70% of our economy depends on people spending money to buy goods and services. How does it help our society by giving money to people that don't have jobs? How does giving away more money to unemployed people help us get out of an economic hole? Answer: it doesn't! Even Bill Clinton recognized this when he reduced unemployment benefits during his administration.

2) Tax the "Rich" people more. This is an even dumber idea. Lets give money to people with no jobs but lets increase the tax burden on the people who make the economy run (spend the money). I am willing to bet that the rich guy is gonna buy a lot more big-screen TVs and cars than the unemployed guy.

3) Increase the Minimum Wage from $6.50 to $9.50/hour. May sound like a good idea on the surface but does this make sense financially? Hell no. If you want to increase the minimum wage, that is fine with me...but it should be done slowly over time and there should be some type of link to inflation. Quickly increasing the minimum wage by 50% is going to cripple small businesses in this country...the same small businesses which provide so many jobs to American people. Think about it this way...what if your grocery or electric bill went up 50% overnight? And what will happen when that small business owner now has a 50% increase in his labor cost? Thats right...he is going to lay off workers because he can't afford to pay them. And how does that help the economy??

This exact same concept was rampant in the 1970s...tax the rich...give money away...high inflation...stagnant economy...I could go on and on but it was not a good time for our country. Now we sit here about to repeat the same mistakes with Mr Obama. And this doesn't even mention the crazy whack-job advisors that Obama had working for him up until a few months ago (remember that Reverend Wright dude...enough said).

My whole point here is that Barack Obama isn't anything new. He is a incredibly inexperienced guy who is a great talker...that much I will give him. But he is rehashing old ideas from the 1970s...ideas that didn't work then and most certainly won't work today.

Sure...John McCain is 257 years old and he is a grumpy old codger...I don't relate to him on many levels. But the guy has been around and has experience. I know what he stands for. He is much more middle-of-the-road than George Bush on many issues. And given the choice of one or the other, I am gonna go with guy who is an experienced driver...not the guy who just got his license two weeks ago.

Gas Prices on their way down

2008-07-29T18:30:00.004-05:00

Many of you have probably noticed something rather odd the last week...lower gas prices. Yeah I know...who gives a shit about paying 3.95 versus 4.20 per gallon, right? Hey..it's a start, right? I wrote in my post from July 17th (Anyone Remember Iraq) that prices were heading lower, but I figured it would take until the end of the year to reach $100/barrel. So far, we have gone from $147 to $122 on oil in about 2 weeks. I would look for $100 oil (and gas in the $3.50 range) by Labor Day on it's way down to $3.00 sometime next year. I would be willing to bet that the days of $2/gallon gas are long gone, but I don't see a reason we can't stabilize long-term in the $2-$3 range.

On the home front, I hope everyone has checked out Zach's blog that Cheryl created recently...she has been doing a GREAT job on it. If you haven't yet, go look at the most recent post with Zach in the bathtub....it is hilarious. The link is on the right side under the Links section. Hopefully you will enjoy as the blog develops. And don't forget to drop some comments and show Cheryl some love for all her efforts.

I would also be a bad person if I didn't mention Mr Hickman's new blog..Good Helmet. It's a good read for all you other football-crazy people like Chris. I have also added the link to his blog under Zach's blog link. Sorry Hickman...the big Z man takes top spot on the list...I am sure you understand.

Zach's Blog!!

2008-07-20T18:29:00.000-05:00

For all of you who can't get enough Zach, he now has his very own blog! Cheryl set it up this afternoon and she will be adding pictures and info weekly. I have added the link to The Margarita Lounge links at the right. Please show some love to Zach and post a comment when you get a minute....

Greg Norman blows it...again!

2008-07-20T16:26:00.003-05:00

Growing up, I was always a HUGE fan of Greg Norman. But, with his disappearance after the 1996 Masters, I figured my days of rooting on the Shark were over. Until this weekend. Who would have dreamed that 53 year-old Greg Norman would have a two shot lead heading into the final round of the Open Championship?

So..there I sat all day today on my couch...thinking of all the glory Greg was going to get after beating the youngsters today. I was sure that he was going to exercise the demons of his past and bring home a victory for the ages ala Jack Nicklaus at the Masters in 1986. I was sure that he was going to hit irons off the tees and show his wisdom by being conservative and just making pars.

Boy was I wrong. It was just like the 80s all over again. There was Greg...blasting drivers into the rough all day and having to scramble for pars. Now...I realize that even if he would have played conservatively, he might not have won. Patty Harrington played the last two holes amazingly and probably would have beat Greg there anyway...but at least he would have had a chance! You don't have much of a chance to win a major when you are four shots down on the 18th tee.

Don't get me wrong...I am very proud of what Greg did this week and it was great to see him turn the ol' clock back, even if only for a short time. But it was sad to see he hasn't learned his lesson from all the bad luck (and bad decisions) from his past.

Anyone remember Iraq?

2008-07-17T18:46:00.002-05:00

I know that nobody seems to give a shit anymore, but does anyone remember Iraq? I know that the economy is crappy and gas prices are high and everyone in the world is doom-and-gloom these days, but what ever happened to all this press coverage of Iraq?

One year ago, Harry Reid and John Murtha were falling all over each other to condemn the troop surge in Iraq...Reid even going as far to say that "the war in Iraq is lost". It seems that everytime I turned on the news last summer, there was another naysayer out there saying how it wouldn't work. Fast forward one year and things are better. Sure, Iraq doesn't look like the United States yet, but nobody out there can deny that the situation is much better than it was a year ago. Security is better. Violence is down. Political reconciliation has improved. Yet...no mention of anything in the news about it. Luckily, I was able to find a few news articles stuffed in the corner of some websites that I am sure Harry Reid would hate:

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2008/jul/17/iraqs-security-remarkably-better/

http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/meast/07/17/iraq.afghanistan.ap/index.html?iref=newssearch

Wouldn't you think that with all the problems in the world right now, it would be nice to show a little good news occasionally? Now you all know why I refuse to watch the nightly news...it's just plain depressing. While all of the news outlets LOVE death and negativity, I prefer to be an optimist about things.....

1) The economy will improve. For the last hundred years (or more) there have always been ups and downs in our economy. Sometimes recessions come along...it's just a fact of life. Every time a slowdown or recession comes along, people say that "it's different this time". No it isn't. It might be six months...it might be a year or two...but things will improve.

2) Gas prices will come down. Sooner rather than later in my opinion. Crude got hammered the last week and broke a very key support level today. I expect $100 oil (maybe under) by the end of the year. I realize I am sticking my neck out here, but like I said...I am an optimist!

3) Every bank in the country in not going to fail. Just chill out...please. Even if it does, the cash is FDIC insured so you have nothing to worry about.

So...go have a beer. Kiss your wife/husband/girlfriend/boyfriend and go out to a nice dinner this weekend. Be an optimist....

I am a survivor!

2008-07-06T07:11:00.003-05:00

After much fun, KD headed back to Pittsburgh yesterday afternoon. While we had a few cold beverages and some good times over his 3 day visit, we actually behaved ourselves and I avoided the major hangovers I had been dreading.

While I enjoyed having him down here for a few days, it is nice to have some peace and quiet around the house for once. I guess when you have a toddler running around all the time, you respect a quiet day or two much more. I stayed in last night, cooked some dinner and watched some TV. Today I think I will finally get to some of the long-overdue chores that have been building up on my "to-do" list for the past few months.

Cheryl and Zach are scheduled to fly back in tomorrow afternoon around 3:20pm. I am sure by then I will be looking forward to a little excitement around here....

Rain Rain (and other stuff)

2008-06-23T18:29:00.004-05:00

Is it ever going to stop raining in South Florida? I guess you either have it one way or the other around here. We have been bitching about the lack of rain for a year (water restrictions, reduced watering, etc) and now we get it all at once. The good news is my grass is the greenest it has been in a LONG time. The bad news is that it is really depressing. If we could get one day of sun...just one day...maybe it would help. But this type of gloom reminds me of Erie in the winter. Ugh....

I see that George Carlin died yesterday out in Cali. This is a true tragedy and day of mourning, especially for me. I always loved Carlin growing up and watched him whenever I could. Yes....even in "Bill and Ted's Excellent Adventure". Obviously the movies weren't his thing...he was first and foremost a stand-up comic. Seems like all the great comics from my childhood are dead...Sam Kinnison, George Carlin, Eddie Murphy. Oh yeah..Eddie is still alive and doing movies like "Daddy Daycare" so in terms of comedy he might as well have thrown a seven already.

I also see that Barack Obama is leading in the latest Presidential polls and I need to stop to vomit. Yep, I am already sick of it and the election isn't for another 4 1/2 months. Just so everyone knows how I feel, there is no way in hell I will ever vote for Barack Hussein Obama...ever. And it has nothing to do with his middle name. I really don't like the alternative choice (the old geezer), but in terms of policies at least I know where McCain stands on most things. Obama seems to be like Bill Clinton where he tells everyone what they want to hear and is real cloudy on the details. I realize that the old geezer doesn't have much of a chance here (I don't think Jesus Christ would have much of a chance at this point) , but I'm gonna go with my gut and stay away from the guy who has whacko preachers for spiritual advisors the last 20 years. At least McCain's wife is in the beer business. A war veteran and beer ALWAYS beats two lawyers in my book.

And FINALLY...I will be receiving a rare visit from the late, great K-Delish next week! NO..he isn't dead or anything...it just seems like it. It has been a few years since Mr. Douglas made his way down to Florida to see his old buddies, but he will be here on July 2nd for a few days. I am sure there will be some cold beverage consumption involved, but I realize we are both old married farts with kids so my excitement is somewhat tempered. We'll probably get all banged up the first night and complain about hangovers for the next three days....

I'm wrong again...

2008-06-15T20:17:00.004-05:00

Looks like I was wrong again about Tiger this week. Hey...at least I admit when I am wrong, right? I would be lying if I said that I was happy about him making that putt on 18 to force the payoff tomorrow. I would have much rather seen Rocco Mediate the journeyman/underdog pull off the biggest upset on the biggest stage to send Tiger packing, but I guess it wasn't meant to be today.

The good news is that the final round of a major was (for once) very exciting down the stretch. It seems like there has been a lack of drama recently on Sundays at the majors with no down-to-the-wire battles like today. To see Tiger gut it out on a bad knee was great. To see the longshot play the best golf of his life at age 45 to tie the best player in the world is great theater, there is no doubt about it.

Unfortunately, the bad news is that there is a Monday playoff, which I am not a fan of. The drama is gone on Monday...everyone is back at work...the crowds are gone from the golf course...and often times the air of excitement is gone when the two players tee it up on Monday morning. And in this case, I think Rocco's magic will be gone. Trust me...I hope it isn't and I would root for Rocco any day of the week. But I know that head-to-head Rocco vs. Tiger isn't probably going to be much to watch tomorrow. I hope I am again wrong tomorrow....

US Open Week

2008-06-10T19:01:00.002-05:00

Another US Open is upon us. While all the talk (as usual) is about Tiger, I don't think the focus at the end of the week will be on him. I could be wrong about that one, but I just don't see him being at his best after almost two months off. If it was any other tournament I would say he had a chance, but not the US Open. Open courses tear apart great players who are on top of their games. Maybe he doesn't miss the cut like he did in 2006, but I just don't see Elderick winning this week.

I would keep an eye on Phil, Sergio and Vijay to be there on the weekend. I also like Stewart Cink, Luke Donald and Boo Weekley to hang around the top of the leaderboard. My "dark horses" for the week are Anthony Kim, Justin Rose and Jeff Quinney. The cool thing about this year is that coverage on the East Coast is going to be in prime time, which is a little different from the ordinary 6-7pm finish.

Hurricane Season

2008-05-31T12:57:00.003-05:00

One of the most feared seasons of the year begins in South Florida tomorrow...Hurricane Season. While the last two summers have been fairly boring, I don't think I will ever forget the summers of 2004 and 2005 with Jeanne, Frances and Wilma. As many of you know, I am a hurricane nut and just love following them throughout the summer. Hopefully there is some excitement this year.

Hey T...there is already some convection out there in the Western Caribbean!! When you gonna come visit for a hurricane party?

Back from the Mountains

2008-05-27T19:53:00.004-05:00

As every good vacation always does, this one has come to an end. Cheryl and I got back last night and we both decided to take an extra day off work to get used to "normal life" again. It's gonna be tough, but at least we only have three more days left this week.

We both want to thank Pattymelt for taking a week out of her life to come down and babysit Zach. From what I understand, it was a rather teary affair at the airport today.

As for the trip, we had a GREAT time. We arrived in Charlotte around noon on Thursday without any flight delays. We drove two hours to Asheville and spent a few hours at Biltmore. After a great dinner out, we got up the next morning and spent a few more hours at Biltmore before driving the Blue Ridge Parkway for a few hours. The next three nights were spent at Heaven's Gait...a house rental in the mountains about an hour off the Blue Ridge Parkway.

While pictures never seem to do a beautiful place any justice, I have tried my best to show as much of our vacation as possible. We hope that you enjoy the pictures (to follow)....

Biltmore

2008-05-27T19:52:00.001-05:00

For those of you who have never heard of Biltmore, here it is. Biltmore was constructed in the late 1890s by George Vanderbilt in the hills around Asheville, NC. In addition to the four story house (plus the basement), there are gardens, a farm, a restaurant, a winery, and an Inn. While it is pretty expensive to visit ($47 per person), it was well worth our money.

Biltmore (rear view)

2008-05-27T19:51:00.000-05:00

This is the view from the back porch of the Biltmore House. In the background are the Blue Ridge Mountains that are just north of Asheville.

Biltmore Gardens

2008-05-27T19:50:00.001-05:00

Biltmore Gardens which are adjacent to the Biltmore House. Note the nice classic car driving by when Cheryl snapped this picture.

Blue Ridge Parkway

2008-05-27T19:49:00.001-05:00

One of the beautiful views from the Blue Ridge Parkway.

Linn Cove Viaduct

2008-05-27T19:48:00.003-05:00

This is Cheryl's favorite spot on the Blue Ridge Parkway. It's called the Linn Cove Viaduct. It was completed in the early 1980s and was the last link in the Parkway. Since the Linn Cove area is a "protected" area that is environmentally sensitive, engineers had to wait until the technology was available to build this. It was opened to traffic in 1987.

Heaven's Gait

2008-05-27T19:47:00.001-05:00

Front View of our house for the weekend. To say this place was in the middle of nowhere is an understatement. This is literally the last house on the road and about 4 miles from the entrance to the development.

Heaven's Gait (rear view)

2008-05-27T19:46:00.002-05:00

Rear view of the house from down the hill. I almost killed myself getting back up the hill to the house after I took this one....

Side Window View

2008-05-27T19:45:00.002-05:00

This is the view we woke up to every day from our side window. Not too shabby, huh?

Rear View

2008-05-27T19:44:00.001-05:00

View from the back deck. Many beverages were consumed on this deck. We were also very lucky to have three beautiful sunsets to look at on our three-night stay.

Grandfather Mountain

2008-05-27T19:43:00.001-05:00

View from the top of Grandfather Mountain. There were about 10 pictures I could have posted here, but this one was my favorite.

Blowing Rock

2008-05-27T19:42:00.002-05:00

View from Blowing Rock. Blowing Rock is an actual rock (where this was taken from) , but it is also the name of the town that was about an hour from our house. There is a really cool downtown area where we enjoyed a couple beers after taking in this view.

Headin' to North Carolina...

2008-05-20T16:44:00.005-05:00

Yes, I know...I am pathetic. It has been over three weeks since a post and there have been lots of things going on...some good and some bad. The good news is that vacation time is FINALLY here! Cheryl and I are heading out on Thursday morning for some much-deserved rest and relaxation in the mountains of North Carolina. We figured that Zach would be fine with Lucy for a few days, right?

Actually, Pattymelt is flying in tomorrow to watch the big man while we are gone. We are staying in Asheville on Thursday Night at a bed and breakfast and then renting a house in Ferguson, NC for three nights that is on the side of a mountain in the middle of nowhere. Talk about fun...we have been looking forward to this trip for months and we are very excited that it is almost here. Unfortunately, we are both sick right now (me a sore throat and Cheryl has bronchitis) so hopefully we will improve in the next day or so. I am hoping to have some good pictures to share with everyone when we get back next week.

Whats been going on...

2008-04-28T20:43:00.002-05:00

As it's been a while since I have done a "whats going on" entry, I figured I could cover a whole lot of stuff at once. Here goes:

1) The 2008 NFL Draft is over and the Dolphins did pretty well in my book. Sure, there was nothing flashy about getting a bunch of linemen and a few late round running backs, but I give them an over all grade of a "B". The only negative was the trading of Lorenzo Booker, who I thought was one of the lone high points of last years 1-15 debacle.

2) Buy stocks. Sure, the market has sucked since October, but I think we are turning a corner the last month. There are also rumors out there (and confirmed by one of my realtor clients) that people are actually buying houses again. The stimulus checks start showing up soon and with interest rates getting cut, there should be a nice bump to the economy come October/November. A new president at the end of 2008, an improving economy and (hopefully) a rising dollar and lower oil prices is just what the market ordered. If you have been sitting on the sidelines and worried, start adding it back into the market. If all this market/economy jargon confused you, here is the executive summary....Buy real estate, buy stocks (tech, banks, even homebuilders are OK here), and buy dollars. Sell anything in energy and commodities, including gold and oil. The music is gonna stop soon and you don't want to be the one without a chair. I know I have said this for a while now, but it's coming along soon....

3) Zach is getting so big. Every day he seems to learn something else and he is literally into everything in the house. He really is at such a fun age right now. Walking (and running) around, laughing and babbling incoherent words and sentences. It doesn't get any better than this.

4) Only 3 1/2 weeks left until Cheryl and I head to the mountains of North Carolina for a much needed vacation. We love Zach, but we are both looking forward to a few days away from being Mommy and Daddy. Pattymelt (now known as Nanna to Zach) will be coming for almost a week to babysit.

5) One of the best times of the year will be upon us in two days....SUNFEST! I've got my tickets and I am ready to partake in some cold beverage consumption. Cheryl and I are planning a "date night" on Saturday and Zach will be staying with Mimi and Papa in Delray for the night. Hopefully I will have some great pictures like the ones from last year....

Zach gets his ass kicked....

2008-04-23T19:15:00.002-05:00

Poor Z got his ass kicked at daycare today...by a girl. The pictures make it look worse than it is, but I still felt bad when I heard about it tonight after getting home from work. I told him to make sure he punches her in the face tomorrow, cause fair is fair....right??

Seriously, I guess one of the girls in his class decided they wanted the toy he was playing with so she decided to go all baby-psycho on him and scratch up his face. I am sure he could care less as he is fairly chill about stuff like this. Zach is a lover...not a fighter.

You can help!

2008-04-21T11:27:00.003-05:00

One woman in the United States is diagnosed with Breast Cancer every 3 minutes.

One woman in the United States dies of Breast Cancer every 13 minutes.

One in every 8 women will be diagnosed with Breast Cancer at some point in their life.

One of my old college pals, Sharon Montgomery, signed up for a 3-day event in Cleveland to raise money and awareness for Breast Cancer. Sharon is going to walk 60-miles over 3 days and hopes to raise at least $2200 for the Komen Foundation. The money raised will go toward future research, education, screening, and treatment of Breast Cancer.

Statistics say that 1 in every 8 women will be diagnosed with Breast Cancer - chances are good that someone you know will be affected. Every dollar helps - if you can spare $10.00, please follow the link below and support Sharon....you never know, you could save the life of your mom, your wife, a friend, your daughter, etc.

Good luck Sharon!

http://08.the3day.org/site/TR/Walk/ClevelandEvent?px=1779741&pg=personal&fr_id=1183&et=ZctWSPn8lc2Ec7DT5ezn0g..&s_tafId=6288

Masters 2008

2008-04-10T12:08:00.001-05:00

Zach won't be competing in the Masters for another 18 years, but it sure helps to start practicing now.

Some support for "Big Oil"

2008-04-05T18:04:00.003-05:00

As some of you know, I am a fan of Glenn Beck. I also am not a member of the "bash the oil companies" clan that now seems to be running around. If it isn't "Big Oil" it's "Big Banks" or "Big Healthcare" or "Big Insurance" that always seems to be lurking around the corner to screw you over and take your money.

But, instead of going off on a tangent on the whole oil thing, I figured I would let Glenn Beck do the talking. He wrote a great article last week which I think hits the nail on the head. It also does a little Al Gore bashing, which is always OK in my book as I think he is a total phony. Here is the article:

http://www.cnn.com/2008/US/04/03/beck.oilexecs/index.html

Happy Easter

2008-03-23T08:04:00.002-05:00

Happy Easter! Zach won't be getting any candy this year, but he did get this very cool Elmo couch. He also received a new Ohio State jersey from his Aunt Sally - a very important gift since football season is quickly approaching.

RIP Bear Stearns

2008-03-17T18:29:00.003-05:00

Yep...it finally happened today. A major player on Wall Street went under. Bear Stearns, one of the most well-respected names on the Street sold out to JP Morgan for $2 per share. It was at $160 per share less than a year ago and $100 per share in December. I almost fell out of my chair this morning when I found out.

Now...no matter how you feel about the company(or whether you have ever even heard of them), there is one sad thing about the demise...7,000 people are going to lose their jobs. I think JP Morgan was planning on keeping half of the estimated 14,000 employees of Bear, but the other half is going to be shortly out of a job. I feel for these people. In addition, there are some stories I heard today about Bear employees who had their entire retirement plan tied up in Bear Stearns stock. While I feel bad for someone who is ready to retire and only has $50,000 to their name, I feel even worse if that account was worth $1 Million a few weeks ago. This brings me to today's lesson, fellow readers....DIVERSIFY!!!!

Most of these people at Bear are very smart people so they should have diversified their retirement accounts. But I know there are lots that didn't. Take my advice....don't be stupid...DO NOT HAVE ALL OF YOUR MONEY INVESTED IN ONE STOCK!!!!. I can preach this over and over to people but there is always someone who thinks they are smarter than everyone else. Ask the people at Bear Stearns...Ask the people at Enron. Don't have more than 10% of your portfolio in one stock and you will live to fight another day if the company blows up. You won't be happy when you lose 10% of your money, but it sure beats losing your entire life savings. It's just not worth it....

More Pix of Zach

2008-03-12T19:20:00.003-05:00

At the request of Aunt Sally, here are a couple more pictures of Zach from the past week. This picture shows Zach in normal 7am spot....rummaging through the cabinets. Please note that he is getting ready to throw around some very loud kitchen utensils.

Zach wearing his new shades on the fire truck. This was taken about half a second before he threw them off . He doesn't really like the shades, but we keep putting them on hoping he will change his mind. No luck so far....

Client #9

2008-03-10T19:22:00.003-05:00

Caption: "This is about how much of my penis is going to be left after my wife chops it off tonight".

So there I was, having a rather terrible day at work. The market is getting hammered AGAIN, oil prices are at completely irrational numbers, and it is cloudy outside. Just when I thought it couldn't get any worse, along comes the Eliot Spitzer story and all is good with the world again.

As anyone who works on Wall Street can tell you, this guy is a scumbag. He has always hid behind the "crusader" label and did it all for political gain. I have been trying to find my post from a year or two ago where I ripped into him about this, but just can't seem to find it. No matter...old "Client #9" showed his true colors today.

Finally...after all of the scandals involving Republicans like Larry Craig and Mark Foley, I get to see a Democrat fry a little bit! I did find it rather funny that the NBC Nightly News only spent 4 minutes on the story tonight...the same amount of time they spent on the Obama/Clinton race. I seem to remember at least half of the newscast devoted to Larry Craig when he got busted trying to get some action in the airport bathroom stall last year. I even saw old James Carville on CNN tonight defending Spitzer and saying how this wasn't a big deal. Keep diggin that hole, Jimmy...I will even hand you the shovel....

A cure for my bad mood

2008-02-27T19:20:00.002-05:00

I am so grateful for this little man. It doesn't matter how bad my day is or how much I have on my mind.....this guy's smile washes it all away. Can't help but smile when you look at it, huh?

The Happy Man

2008-02-27T19:18:00.002-05:00

I think Cheryl said it best above. We all have tough days, tough weeks, and even tough months. But when you come home and get a big smile from a handsome man like Zach, all the troubles seem to melt away. Since I haven't posted many pictures of him recently, here is another great one we took within the past week.

Two out of Three Days....

2008-02-22T20:57:00.002-05:00

I know that my regular readers (all two of you) are probably wondering what the hell is wrong with me. I have now posted two out of last three days. It just seems like it's so hard to get to the Margarita Lounge, but I will continue to try and keep everyone updated on whats going on.

Speaking of whats going on...I actually got a response today from "The Senator"! It has been a very long time Mark. Actually, I assume it was the Senator and not MT as it was just signed as "Mark". Normally, I can keep them straight but the comment had a "Go Obama" note on it, so I was quite confused as to which liberal was posting it. Plus I am drinking some wine tonight, so I am easily confused....

In any case, at least it didn't say "Go Hilary" because then I would have to vomit. And I don't like to vomit wine...it is messy. In my opinion, both Hilary and Obama are equally worthless, but I don't think there is a chance in hell of Hilary winning at this point, and that REALLY makes me happy.

Daddy's New Ride

2008-02-20T21:23:00.003-05:00

Here is a picture of my new ride. After almost 6 years in the Ford Explorer, it is finally time to move on. Cheryl and I have done our research over the past month and decided on the GMC Acadia. I even found a picture on the internet with my color...Deep Blue Metallic. Although you can't tell by the picture, it has more interior room than my Explorer and also gets better gas mileage. AND, instead of a bench for the second row, it has two Captain's Chairs! Talk about sweet, huh?

I am scheduled to go pick it up on Saturday morning. Unfortunately, the buying process was the typical car buying pain-in-the-ass. We got a quote from a dealer on the internet and then they didn't want to honor the number when I showed up. Three hours later they finally agreed to it, but only after I had to act like a prick and threaten to leave the dealership two or three times. It was such a difference from Cheryl's Accord a few years ago. That time, everything ran smoothly and they guy we dealt with was really cool.

Politics and Vacation

2008-01-29T21:16:00.000-05:00

There are no two subjects on such opposite ends of the spectrum as these. Politics is the big deal today as the Florida Primary is wrapping up. It looks like McCain will be the winner here in the Sunshine State. Not a big surprise, but kind of disappointing for me as I voted for Romney and don't really care for McCain. I always liked Rudy, but since he has basically shit the bed the last month or two, I figured I would go with someone who had a chance of getting the nomination.

As for vacation, that is coming up on Friday. John and Pattymelt are flying into West Palm tomorrow at noon and I am in charge of pickup. They are going to be spending a few days with their wonderful (and unfortunately sick) grandson Z before we all head off on a big family vacation to Sanibel Island on Friday morning. It's Pattymelt's 60th birthday on Sunday and the whole Soderberg clan is getting together for a big party. I think the final number is 14 so it should be quite a little shin-dig.

Congrats to the Engaged Couple!

2008-01-20T09:21:00.001-05:00

Congratulations go out from the Margarita Lounge to Tracy and Jeff on their engagement yesterday. Cheryl and I were at Casa de Hickman last night enjoying a few (too many) glasses of wine when we got the call from an obviously excited T. We both wish them all the best in their life together and we look forward to a trip to Cali later this year for the wedding.

The BIG Birthday

2008-01-13T21:09:00.000-05:00

I know it is hard to believe, but Zach is one today! Cheryl and I had my family over last night for a small celebration. Zach was a little piggy and ate almost an entire cupcake with strawberry icing by himself. It was a rather messy situation, but it was hilarious. Both Cheryl and I are very thankful to have little Zach in our lives. While his first year has been tough at times, it is all worth it in the end to have a healthy smiling baby.

Zach's New Fire Truck

2007-12-30T11:13:00.000-05:00

Zach received his first ride-on toy this Christmas from his Mimi & Papa. I'm not sure who has more fun with it - Todd or the Z-man.

MERRY CHRISTMAS to All....

2007-12-22T11:44:00.001-05:00

Since I have been so incredibly busy the last few months, I figured that I had better wish everyone a Merry Christmas while I had a few extra seconds of free time. It just seems like all of our extra time is gone with big Z man now tearing around the house. No..he's not walking yet, but that isn't far away now and all I do is chase him and try to keep him from hurting himself. His big 1st birthday is coming up on January 13th! I can't believe how big he is getting....

In any case, Merry Christmas to everyone. If you are Jewish, Happy Hanukkah (which I guess is already over, so let's call it a belated Happy Hanukkah). Like many other people, Cheryl and I are giving thanks this year for all that we have. With everyone's crazy lives, it is often hard to sit down, relax, and think about how good we all have it. Gifts are great, but they are really not the basis of the holiday season...love is. So....take a few extra minutes out of your day and hug your wife and kids...hug your parents...hug grandma...hug your neighbor (not you Kris out there in the acreage...I'm sure that Charlie Daniels stinks). It is indeed a special time of year and the New Year (and more responsibilities and stuff to do) is just around the corner.....

FINALLY....A WIN!!!

2007-12-16T21:05:00.000-05:00

I know it wasn't the Super Bowl, but it sure felt like it this afternoon at the Margarita Lounge. The Miami Dolphins finally won a football game today! It wasn't the prettiest win and they didn't beat a great team, but I will take it. Just the thought of going 0-16 and forever being known as the worst team in NFL history was really making me sick this week. I had nightmares about it on Wednesday Night (no kidding). I got so excited this afternoon after the winning touchdown that I scared the crap out of Zach. The poor guy started crying because I was so fired up. Sorry buddy...

While there is no hope of playoffs, at least one win looks like it will keep Cam Cameron in his job...at least for another year. If they are still this bad next year he will be gone. But even if the team ends up going 1-15 this year, I am comforted to know that there were lots of good teams that went 1-15. The Cowboys in the late 80s were 1-15 in Jimmy Johnson's first year and went on to win three Super Bowls. The Carolina Panthers were 1-15 and went to the Super Bowl a few years later. I just feel like a huge weight has been lifted off my shoulders....

On a related note, congrats to Mr. Hickman and his Browns. They are now tied with the Steelers and look like a lock to make the playoffs. I will definitely be rooting for Cleveland this postseason.

Glenn Beck

2007-12-03T19:12:00.000-05:00

As some of you know, I am a fan of Glenn Beck. I wouldn't consider myself a raving crazy fan, but I think he brings up some good points on his TV show and he is entertaining. I think the main draw for me is the sarcasm he uses on a nightly basis...sarcasm is so under-appreciated these days. He must be doing something right because he just signed a new $50 Million contact for his radio show and there are three billboards with his face on them within 15 minutes of my house. And I live in a "blue" county surrounded by liberals! Gotta love it. Here are two pictures from Glenn's book signing in Jupiter on Friday. Kris and I drove up and stood in line for an hour, but it was a fun outing in general.

Back from the Dead

2007-11-27T19:27:00.000-05:00

I apologize. I just realized that it has been over two weeks since I posted anything at all at the Margarita Lounge. I guess I have been too busy playing with Zach, watching the stock market get killed all day, and watching the Dolphins find new ways to lose games. Yes, it is quite a sad time to be a Dolphins fan in South Florida. 0-11 and only five games left to get a "W". While I'm not nervous yet, I will be if we lose to the Jets this coming weekend as they represent the best victim. Wish us luck.

Cheryl and I took a few pictures of Zach the other day for Christmas on the beach down in Delray. Here is one that made the final cut.....

The Happy Couple

2007-11-12T21:05:00.000-05:00

For any of you that didn't know, Cheryl Zach and I went to Pittsburgh this past weekend for the wedding of the great K-Delish. Sorry ladies, he is now off the market. We had a great time. Here is a picture of Mr and Mrs Douglas at the reception.

Anyone want a shot?

2007-11-12T21:04:00.000-05:00

Craig and I getting ready to dish out the shots at the reception.

Pre-Wedding

2007-11-12T21:03:00.001-05:00

Kris and I in front of the hotel before the wedding. Does it look cold? Hell yes it was cold! It was between 35 and 40 degrees all weekend. Pretty cold for a Floridian...

Havin' a beer with the Boys

2007-11-12T20:57:00.000-05:00

Zach hangin' out with Kris and I on Friday afternoon at Buffalo Wild Wings in Pittsburgh.

Cheryl gets her ass kicked...

2007-10-29T19:27:00.000-05:00

My wife got her ass kicked yesterday by a guy named Dan. No, I didn't run out and kick his ass. Why? Because Dan is a personal trainer at LA Fitness. We finally broke down and joined last week. With a membership you get a free session with one of their resident meathead personal trainers. Dan decided that Cheryl should do about 10 sets of arm exercises yesterday morning. Not a good idea. She can't raise her hands past her ears today and I hate to tell her that it might be worse tomorrow. Hopefully she will be able to pick Zach up by the weekend.

On another note, we have some convection out there in the Atlantic! Excited T? It is pretty late in the season, but the forecasts right now say Noel will barely miss us here in South Florida. I am less optimistic as the dreaded "cone" has been moving closer to us all day. Just to be safe, I ran out to Publix and got some extra water, ice, formula and baby food for the little man.

RIP 2007 Cleveland Indians

2007-10-22T20:29:00.000-05:00

I would like to give a fond farewell to my favorite baseball team. They got their asses handed to them last night by the Boston Red Sox 11-2. That wouldn't normally bother me, but after having a 3 games to 1 lead in the Championship Series it is pretty sad. Yeah, I know they are a young team. But to have your #1 and #2 starters pitch as bad as Sabathia and Carmona did is incredibly disappointing. It doesn't help that the team gave up 30 runs in the final three games either. Just to show that I am not a fair weather fan, I will continue to wear my Indians hat on the weekends while crying all day. Sniff-sniff....