The road to Socialism...

I could go on and on for many paragraphs how outright wrong this bill is on so many levels. But, I just decided to let everyone read it and decide for themselves. If this is the way we are going with this government, I am VERY afraid of what the next step is....

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/politics/Beyond-AIG-A-Bill-to-let-Big-Government-Set-Your-Salary-42158597.html

JANES and NIN together this summer!

Can you tell I am excited? I just found out last night that one of my favorite bands of all time, Janes Addiction (all the originals) will be touring this summer with Trent Reznor and his crew, otherwise known as Nine Inch Nails. As a college student from the early 90s, I was always a big fan of both groups and have never had a chance to see either one live. Well...the day has finally come! The date is May 8th, which is the first date of the 2009 summer tour...right here in West Palm Beach! And to make things even better, it's on a Friday Night. And I am already hooked up with some sweet pavilion seats and a VIP pass courtesy of my bud Joel. And as if things couldn't get any better, they do. The week before this concert I get to see 311 at Sunfest...another favorite that I have never seen live. Life is good...

My Hero

I was reminded today that my husband is my hero, so I feel obliged to dedicate a post to him. Lucy was barking this afternoon while I was getting Zach ready for a post-car-wash bath. I looked out the back door and saw a 10 foot snake on the screened patio....well, okay, it might not have been quite 10 feet long...maybe 3 or 4 feet, but in my mind it was huge!

I should mention that I HATE snakes...I don't care if they are caged, or on TV, whatever - I don't have any desire to look at them or think about them. Had my hero not "taken care of" the snake, I would not open the back door, let the dog into the back yard, let Zach on the patio, had dinner on the porch, etc for a VERY LONG TIME. Not to mention the countless nights of nightmares I would've endured.

So - my hero got his trusty shovel and chased the snake out into the yard....I won't go into details but I will just say that the snake has been "dealt with" and I sit here now with the back sliding door open and a nice breeze blowing in. At least for one day my husband is being held upon a pedestal.

On the way soon...

I have wondered how long it would take for us to come up with this. Looks like the time frame is two to three years. Sweet!

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-1161274/Scientists-develop-mobile-phone-battery-charged-just-10-seconds.html

Chugga Chugga Chugga

The Party Train made it until 11pm on Saturday evening - pretty impressive considering that he and Todd got started early afternoon during lunch at Bradley's. Above you are viewing Sean's attempt at reddening the other side :)

He's got another day in paradise before heading back to Dreary Erie on Tuesday...then it will be time for the Margarita Lounge to prepare for the arrival of Jeff & Ta-Ta.

Party Train Fizzles on Friday Night!

We got a big let-down from the Party Train last night, who is in town for a long weekend. We were expecting the train to be chugging half the night - instead, he crashed at 9:30pm after a day of sun (obviously), several beers and some pizza. Perhaps tonight the Party Train will be able to get out of the station!!

What the HELL is he thinking

Ok...everyone who knows me knows that I dont like President Obama. But I was willing to give everyone the benefit of the doubt on certain things. I have finally reached my breaking point as this guy obviously has NO CLUE about what is going on in this economy and also has no solutions except nice cute speeches. Speeches are great, but there is a time to talk and then there is a time to actually do something...this would be the latter.

The economy is in the recessionary toilet. The stock market is tanking daily due to no confidence in the system. And this guy is out there talking about how important health care reform is and how it cant wait? WHAT THE HELL IS HE DOING? It's like the guy is still campaining. OK dude...we get it...you are now the President and you are an important person. Now DO SOMETHING productive. Health care and Energy are important issues, but they can wait a little while. At least Bush and Paulson acknowledged they were working on it...Obama doesn't seem to really give a shit. Maybe if he acted like he cared people would feel better. I know feeling better wont cause the economy to recover, but at least it would be a start....

A little perspective....

Below is a pretty good "perspective" article for all those who want the real scoop on the recession. Please note that I said "recession" and not "depression" and all the other crap you are all hearing in the news recently. As usual, the media (and Obama) are playing on the doomsday scenario that this is the worst thing since the Great Depression and all is lost if we don't immediately spend a bunch of money.

Does anyone remember a little thing called the TARP last year? This was the $700 Million bank bailout that made all the news last year. Bush and Paulson argued that all this money needed to be spent immediately to avoid impending doom. The Democrats decided to only let him spend half...then grovel before Congress for the other half. Now, 4-5 months later the Democrats are saying it needs to be done right now and the Republicans are saying "not so fast". WTF?

In any case, without blowing a gasket and going on a political rage here is the article...

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123457303244386495.html

Beware of Sinking Ship

As you all know, I recently moved my practice from Wachovia Securities to Stifel Nicolaus. I was just tired of getting lied to, having my pay and benefits cut, and having to explain to my clients why they had to pay higher fees. It's really too bad because AG Edwards was such a great place to work for many, many years. When Wachovia took over almost two years ago, everything started going south. So, me and my cohort in crime Kris decided to bail out and go elsewhere in early January. Best move I have ever made.

Well...two more parachuters jumped out of the plane today. I wish them (Mark and Roger) all the best in their new careers at Raymond James. Unfortunately, it looks like Wachovia Securities is a sinking ship these days...especially the Boynton Beach branch. They are losing brokers faster than they can count, Wachovia management doesn't seem to give a shit about them, and rumors are they are seeking another buyer for the brokerage unit...the fouth in two years. It is really sad to see what has happened to a 120 year-old well respected firm. RIP AG Edwards....

My New Employer

Once again I apologize for my lack of postings...since the Atlantis trip there has been lots going on, including a trip to Virginia where I got to go skiing for the first time in 10 years and Zach got to see his first snow. But I can honestly say I have been distracted ever since the Atlantis trip with the biggest life-changing event of my life (outside of my wedding day and the birth of Zach). I have decided to leave Wachovia recently and move on to "greener pastures" at Stifel Nicolaus. I realize many of you are probably saying "Who the hell is Stifel Nicolaus?" They are a small regional broker-dealer headquartered in St. Louis.

Lets think about this for a minute as this all sounds familiar. Regional broker-dealer in St. Louis who has been around for 120 years and has a great reputation. Sounds like AG Edwards before Wachovia bought it and completely destroyed it. Bingo! I am hoping that my move to Stifel will work out as well as my career with Edwards was, at least until Wachovia showed up.

Headin' to Atlantis

Cheryl, Zach and I are heading out tomorrow morning to the Bahamas for a nice long relaxing weekend. Cheryl's cousin Megan is getting married on Saturday afternoon. None of us has ever been to the Bahamas and we are looking forward to a little rest and relaxation. The return flight is on Monday...wish us luck!

Some people should not be allowed to reproduce...

We all know that celebrities seem to give their children odd names at times, but this one has to take the cake. The superficial had this on their front page today and I have been laughing my ass off about it for 5 minutes. Poor kid....

http://thesuperficial.com/2008/11/ashlee_simpson_has_a_boy.php

Look Out Below

So...we are now two days into the "new world" of the savior of the free world Barack Obama. Too bad the market is down almost 1000 points in these two days. I guess higher taxes on businesses and increased regulation doesn't sit too well with investors....hmmm, who would have thought?

After two days of mourning and vomitting at the stupidity of the voting public in the United States, I have realized that there is a light at the end of the tunnel. The light is known as "the blame game". It is something that Democrats have become experts at for 8 long years...blaming every bad thing in the world on George Bush and the "evil" Republicans. Now it is my turn for a little payback, at least for the next four years. Any economic news, natural disaster, wars, etc is now the fault of the savior Barack Obama. I feel much better now! Cheers everyone....

Why I am voting for McCain

There is a little expression we use on Wall Street when talking to clients about the gyrations of the stock market..."Beware the crowd at extremes". This means that the stock market is a very dangerous place when people are acting on emotion and not facts. Nothing could be closer to the truth than during this presidential election...emotion is overriding reason and sound judgement. Here is what I am talking about:

On one hand is a guy who has no experience and is completely unproven. This guy has a group of VERY questionable associates that he used to hang out with. His views on the issues are very liberal with some bordering on radical. He "goes with the flow" and follows his political party's wishes to the letter. But he is great at making speeches.

On the other hand you have a guy with lots of experience who is proven. This guy has never associated with radicals, much less a bunch of them. He fought for his country and is considered moderate on many issues. He has gone against his own party on numerous issues where he thought they were wrong. Like most people, he is not a great orator.

We all know where I am going here...I support John McCain for President. I know this isn't the "cool" thing to do...it's what I believe is the best decision given the two choices. I don't support McCain because I like him a whole lot. I don't support him because I agree with him on all the issues. I will vote for McCain because I am making a rational decision based on the facts and I think he would be a better President.

I realize that many people are trying to link McCain and Bush just because they are both Republicans. But if you do the research, you will see that McCain and Bush are only similar on a few issues. In fact, during the 2000 Presidential primary, it is no secret that they did not see eye-to-eye on many issues.

I encourage everyone to get out there on Tuesday and vote. But I ask you not to make your decision based on anger, emotion, a good speech, or what is "cool" to do. If you do this, you are selling your stocks right at the bottom of the market before the rally. Make your own decision based on the issues and your feelings as to who would do a better job leading us through the next four years....

Oh no.....

No, I'm not thinking about Barack Obama and how absolutely scary it is that he could be President shortly. My Sony bigscreen's picture went on the fritz yesterday morning and I now realize how crappy life is without a bigscreen. I am so spoiled. I am also turning 35 tomorrow, which doesn't seem to bother me nearly as much as the TV issue. More on the political statements this weekend, grasshoppers!

Investing 101

Let me know who made what money this week on my suggestion. Hopefully SOMEONE out there made a few bucks cause I made a killing this week....I bought QLD at 30 on Friday last week and sold it Tuesday at 42. Bought it back yesterday at 30.50 and sold it today at 36. Sure I got lucky this time, but with the way things have been in the market lately, I was way overdue for some good luck.

For those longer-term investors out there (which I normally am, by the way...this was a rare trading move that I usually don't have the balls to do), here is a great opinion piece that Warren Buffett wrote in today's New York Times...this is exactly the way you should be thinking right now if you are a long-term investor....

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/17/opinion/17buffett.html?_r=1&ref=opinion&oref=slogin

Take the Money and Run

So you thought I was crazy on Friday, huh? Man do I love it when I am right! Granted, it doesn't always happen, but it sure feels good when I pick it right and actually act on it. Yep...I followed my own advice on Friday and bought QLD at 30 and DDM at about 31. Now my fellow grasshoppers... here is another lesson in making money and it goes something like this...

Bulls make money, Bears make money, and pigs get slaughtered. Don't go out and be a big pig and try to double your money on these things...take some profits. In my case, I think there might be a little more upside follow through tomorrow morning, but I plan on selling at least half of my investment tomorrow. These types of rallies don't happen often, the economy still sucks, and if you can make a 25% or 30% return in 2 days that is 2 years of good work...sell and live to fight another day. Either that or sell half and set a downside stop on the rest at maybe 20 or 25% gain...you can always buy back in when it comes back down.

School is now out.....good luck Daniel-son....

Time to Buy

Yeah...I know...are you friggin NUTS Todd? Why in the hell would I want to buy any stock right now? My response to that is...why not? The market is ridiculously oversold, pessimism is high, the future looks grim. All classic signs of at least a short term bottom in the market. This situation just screams for someone to crush all the shorts out there.

So, if you are a long-term investor (3 years or longer) and have extra cash laying around that you don't plan on needing in the near future, you need to back up the truck here and buy. I know this runs opposite to what the emotional part of your brain says, but your emotional brain gets you in trouble when you are trying to make a rational decision. Sure, you might lose money over the next day or two, but I am guessing you will make money in the next week when we get the huge oversold rally that is just waiting out there....I wouldn't be surprised to see a short term oversold 1000 point rally by next week.

So here is what you do grasshopper. Go buy some QLD between 32-33, DDM between 33-34 or SSO between 29-30 tomorrow morning and dont look at it for a week. Look at it next Friday and see how much money you have made. Could I be wrong...sure. But I am gonna bet I am right. I am even gonna write a reminder on my calendar for next Friday to see if I was right or wrong so I can say "I told you so". Even if I am wrong, does anyone out there really think the stock market won't be higher than it is now in 3 years? The clouds will part, the hurricane will wind down and life will go on. Time to step up to the plate people...

Some Political Humor

Thanks to my fellow stressed out Financial Advisor Kris for this one. No matter what side of the political fence you sit, this one is hilarious. Enjoy.

http://www.peteyandpetunia.com/VoteHere/VoteHere.htm

Some Perspective on the Markets/ Economy

With all the crap that is going on these days in the financial markets, I figured I would post something to give you, my loyal readers, my perspective on things. As with anything, nobody is ever right 100% of the time on everything, but I think these assumptions are at least in the ballpark.

1) The bailout/rescue bill. I think this bill will help the economy down the road, but it isn't going to help in the near-term. While I applaud Paulson for the effort, this doesn't magically solve all our problems today. As much as we love instant gratification in our country, we will need some patience on this one. I don't see this thing up-and-running at full speed for a few months.....meaning early 2009. Until then, things will probably not be getting better.

2) The stock market. Short term(meaning Monday) I think we are going to see another really bad day. I think we will see the Dow Jones go under 10,000 in the next week or two. More companies will go under in the near future. But remember one thing on the stock market...the market always turns around before the economy does...ALWAYS!

3) Credit. If you live on credit, you better learn how to tighten your belt. The days of easy borrowing is gone for a while. While I am not sure how bad it will get, don't plan on borrowing except for the major ticket items like cars and houses. Everyone had a big credit party the last 5 years and the hangover is finally here....and it's looking like a bad hangover.

4) Investments. First of all, DO NOT panic and do something stupid like pull your money out of the bank and put it under the mattress. The world is not going to end tomorrow. The banking system isn't going to fail and we are not going to end up resembling a third world country. If you are young (meaning you have at least 10 year to retirement) do not pull all your money out of stocks and go into cash in your 401k right now. I know this seems like a smart thing to do, but it isn't. Here's what I mean....

If you move to cash, you are going to get what...2% per year on your cash? Lets say this is a bad slowdown and it takes two years for the market to turn around. You will get a 4% return in cash over two years. You might very well lose more money by leaving things as they are in stocks. BUT...when things turn around, it is not unusual to have a 20% move up in the stock market in a recovery. This up move gets you right back on track to your long-term goals. Plus...you are buying lots of shares of those mutual funds at cheap prices now. Remember...you don't need this money today...you need it later so chill out and let things go.

If you are closer to retirement, also do not panic. Just start adding your monthly 401k contributions into bond funds now instead of stock funds. This will weight you more conservatively as you approach retirement in the next few years. If you are already retired, you probably don't (or shouldn't) have all your money in stocks. Everyone is different, but a 50/50 mix of stock and bonds is a good starting point for someone entering retirement right now.

REMEMBER...the world is not going to end next week...have a cool head and just ride things out. If you feel like you need more security, add a little more you your savings account or money market just to have that extra cushion. If your 401k balance freaks you out, just don't look at it...put it right in the drawer when it shows up in the next few weeks, cause it's gonna be an ugly one.

DISCLAIMER: My posting wasn't meant to freak anyone out, I just want to make sure everyone realizes something...things aren't going to turn around immediately now that the rescue bill has passed. There will be some tough times coming for everyone, but things will improve and life will go on in the end. And (hopefully) people will learn from their mistakes and not repeat them...