Sunset

All good things must eventually come to an end. I want to thank all of my readers over the years, but this will be my last post on the Margarita Lounge. With work and family taking up a larger and larger portion of my time (and even more time with baby #2 due in 4 months) I have decided to call a "wrap" on the Margarita Lounge. You can still reach me on Facebook and Zach's blog will continue to be updated by Cheryl on a regular basis. Thanks again to everyone for making ther Margarita Lounge a fun place to hang out...

Time to sell

I know I was about two months early on this, but I think today was finally the day I have been looking for. Start taking profits on your stocks if you have them. There is just too much lining up here that makes me nervous that the "big correction" is finally here. Today the NASDAQ fell through trendline resistance, but more importantly closed under this trendline resistance from the March lows. 1050 was a key resistance number on the S&P 500 and it was breached today with an accompanying close under 1050. And maybe most importantly, the SOX (which is 88% correlated to the NASDAQ since 2006) closed under its previous low from a few weeks ago. If you follow technical analysis/Dow Theory, this is a layup...time to sell. Since the techs are the ones that led us up, it figures that they will be the ones to lead us down.

Now, I could be wrong. I like to think I was just early to the show in August but we are way past due for a 10% or even 15% selloff in this market. Art Cashin has been right all along. And I put my money where my mouth is today...I moved about 40% of my IRA into cash and my QQQQ puts are a few pennies away from breakeven. Sometimes the stars just line up.....

Eating Crow as usual

Well...if the game would have been 30 minutes instead of 60 minutes I would have been the great prognosticator of a victory. Unfortunately, I am a huge loser this weekend in all three football arenas...college football, pro football and fantasy football. I am firmly convinced that the Dolphins would be 4-2 right now if Ted Ginn wasn't on the roster. Sorry Teddy...I am finally turning against you. You have had too many drops in big spots. Zach could catch more passes than you these days....

Predicting a Win on Sunday

I am predicting a Miami Dolphins victory on Sunday against the Saints. Maybe I am crazy, but I figured it was time to go out on a limb. The Dolphins are coming off two nice victories and are rested after a bye week. Nobody is giving them any chance of winning. If the secondary shows up it will be a good game...if they dont it will be ugly. Worse case scenario they lose...it's not like anyone reads the Margarita Lounge anymore so I wont have many people to grovel to...

BTW...Cheryl has been doing a great job over on Zach's blog...check it out if you haven't in a while. The link is on the right....

Still stupid...

Yep...I am getting my ass handed to me again. As though it wasn't bad enough that my QQQQ puts are underwater by about 30% in 2 weeks, I am so stupid that I have decided to also buy puts this week on the S&P 500 (SPY Sept 102's averaged in around 2.10). I am so happy that the rest of my investments (the majority that I don't constantly trade) are all long and making money right now.

Glutton for Punishment...

After swearing off options and getting my ass handed to me on multiple occasions, I am back in the ring with them again. Am I really this stupid? Yep. The tide has to turn eventually, right?

With the big run-up in the NASDAQ since mid-July, in addition to the talking heads on CNBC ALL now saying we are going higher from here, I have decided to go short. I bought some puts on QQQQ over the past couple of days...The Oct 40's to be exact...I am averaged into them at about 2.07 per contract. I figure if we can get a pullback to 36 on QQQQ I should be able to make a nice, quick profit and put that money back in long. Plus, there is a gap around 36 in the chart on July 14/15 and I am a big believer of gap-filling on both the upside and downside. All I can do is lose money, right? I really am stupid...

And now...a lighter moment

I realize I can get a little too serious at times on the Margarita Lounge. So...today we are going a completely different direction. Check out the following page, courtesy of Scotty "the gun permit owner" Greenough over at the Wysiblog. Make sure to go to the bottom and click on "older entries" for more and more pages of fun. I have been laughing my ass off for five minutes on this one....

www.awkwardfamilyphotos.com