Sick Little Man

It just breaks my heart to see the little man sick. He has had the sniffles a few times over the past months, but nothing quite as nasty as this episode. He has been under the weather since Monday morning and still doesn't seem to be getting better. I took him to the doctor again this morning and we are hoping he gets better by the weekend. The good news is that Pattymelt will be arriving at the Margarita Lounge tomorrow afternoon to help out with some babysitting. Cheryl and I are going to Naples on Saturday for a night just for a little well-deserved "alone time". I am sure by then he will be feeling better. Everyone out there wish Zach a speedy recovery....

Gettin' Lazy

My sincere apologies to all of you, my loyal readers. I have been a lazy ass the last week and I am sorry. Yes, there have been a few things going on since I decided to lock Zach in my Explorer10 days ago on a rather hot and sticky South Florida afternoon. At least he had the A/C on....

It looks like Hurricane Dean kicked the hell out of Mexico today. The good news is that the area it made landfall at was a rather rural area and there shouldn't have been a significant loss of life. Thats good, because 165 MPH winds are nothing to joke about...I saw firsthand what a Category Five storm (Andrew) did to Dade county in 1992 and it was not pretty.

The market is crazy as usual. This whole subprime thing is completely out of hand. Sure, defaults are a lot higher than last year, but this all needs a little perspective. Subprime makes up about 12% of the mortgage market. Of this 12%, only about 15% of mortgages are in default or even delinquent on payments. By my calculations, this works out to roughly 1.8% of the entire mortgage market. Nothing to sneeze about, but certainly not worth all the press coverage it has gotten and the doom and gloom this is the end of the world crap I have been reading about. It's a shame I was too chicken shit to buy more of the Countrywide Preferred B's at 10 with a 17% yield last week(they closed today at 17.65) or double up on EOI at 16.25 with a 10% yield(closed today at 19.09). In my opinion, Thursday last week was the bottom. If the Dow floats between 13000 and 13500 for the rest of the year that is fine with me. And it's time to short oil again here at 70...I'm lookin at the lower 60s by the end of the year.

The sick bug has been making the rounds of the Pollock household...part of the reason for my slackness in posts recently. Zach brought something home from daycare and was sick this past weekend. This was of course passed along to Cheryl, who is now in bed and has been sick since last night. That leaves me as next...figured I'd better get this post in before I start vomiting all over the place....

Frotuss to the Rescue!

I want to extend a heartfelt "thank you" to Mr. Hickman for helping me out this afternoon in my hour of need. Cheryl and I were loading groceries into my truck at the local Publix when we locked Zach inside. Luckily, the ol' Explorer was running and the air conditioning was on at the time. Five minutes later, Chris pulled up in the Red Rover and he jetted me off to my house for the extra set of keys. I feel terrible for dragging him off the raft he was floating on in his pool, but he came through like a true friend. Cheryl and I (and of course Zach) thank you for your quick help...we owe you a nice bottle of vino!

756...Finally

I am so glad that old man Bonds finally hit homer #756 last night. Maybe...just MAYBE, Sportscenter will show something besides the "Chase for 756" for 20 minutes of every hour. While it is a great accomplishment that deserves respect and coverage, I am sad to see that Sportscenter has resorted to the same tactics of the regular news media. It is a tactic I like to call "complete overkill" where one subject (whatever it is that week) is absolutely beat to death and analyzed for hours and hours on end. Did Barry Bonds cheat? I could really care less...just show me the scores and highlights guys....

So, now that juice boy is out of the way (as well as A-Rod and Tom Glavine) we can focus on the good stuff. Baseball is getting ready to enter the stretch run and my Indians are leading the AL Central. The PGA Championship starts tomorrow. And there is this small thing known as FOOTBALL SEASON right around the corner. While I am not very enthusiastic about my Canes or Dolphins, everyone is undefeated and optimistic on opening day!

One Day Later....

Oh, the difference a day makes. After quite a struggle with yesterday's hangover, I was fortunate enough to have my wonderful and beautiful wife cook me a great dinner last night. Believe it or not, I actually had a half-glass of wine with dinner. Follow that dinner up with a pretty good night of sleep and presto! I am a new man today.

The unfortunate consequence of feeling better is that my "honey-do" list now looms large in front of me. Wash the car...cut the grass...ugh. Looks like it's going to be a long day today as well.....

Friday Night Trainwreck

It's been a long time since I got torn up as bad as I did last night. (yes, Mr Hickman...the toe was firmly outside of the shoe!) It's about 1:30pm now and I am just beginning to feel alive. Some Advil and Pepto has helped, but I still feel like I was run over by a freight train. How did this happen you ask? Well...I went to the Goo Goo Dolls concert last night with Joel Brookman at Sound Advice in West Palm Beach. I decided that drinking lots of beer on an empty stomach was a good idea and the rest was history. The concert was great...Joel has 12th row seats in the pavilion that are right in front of the stage. I guess I felt that I had to party like a rock star last night. At least there is some good news...I didn't drive. I guess I am getting slightly smarter in my old age....though not smart enough to avoid hangovers I guess. Duh...

Convection??

In what can only be described so far as "boring", hurricane season may be about to pickup. Looking at the NHC site this morning I see that there is a disturbance east of the windward islands that has potential to develop in the coming days. Not that I want to get hit with a hurricane or anything, but at least there will be something to watch....

A Very Funny Sign

Humor is lost in politics. With everyone trying to be serious all the time, there are very few funny moments that make me laugh. This picture, being held by Mitt Romney recently, is hilarious. As many of you know, I am not a big fan of Hilary (or even Mitt for that matter), but it's gotta make you at least chuckle a little bit....

Paddy beats Sergio

While I am slightly disappointed that Sergio couldn't pull out the victory today, I was happy to see Paddy Harrington win. He is a great player that has always had the tools to win a major. He almost gave it away on his 72nd hole, but with Sergio also bogeying his last hole, he opened the door...and that's all you really need for someone to walk on in. It's beginning to look like Sergio is the next Phil Mickelson from two years ago...best player out there to not win a major.

In general, I thought this years Open was extremely entertaining if you are a golf fan. The last day was full of great story lines...charges...faltering down the stretch...the young guns and the stodgy veterans. And better yet, no Elderick Woods. See...life does go on without the great Tiger.

Can Sergio Do It?

With 18 holes left at Carnoustie, it looks like Sergio Garcia is in the drivers seat...a three shot lead over Steve Stricker and a six shot lead over everyone else. While it would be nice to see another American win the title, I'm pulling for Sergio to win. I only hope it's not a 5 or 6 shot blowout because that just aint any fun to watch. He is way too talented of a golfer to stay in the "major-less" category any longer....kinda like Mickelson at the Masters a few years ago.

Half a Birthday

OK...six months is not an official birthday, but who's counting, right? Since I haven't posted a picture of Z in a while, I figured it was time. He was 6 months old on Friday. Even though there have been sleepless nights over the past six months, he is worth it. He just seems to be getting bigger every day.....

Happy Depressing 4th of July

I was checking a few news sites at work today (just trying to see what was going on in the world) and boy was it depressing. I thought to myself...4th of July is a joyous occasion...there's got to be some good puff stories about good things like fireworks, apple pie, baseball, picnics...what's better than that, right? Wrong.

What I found was the same old depressing stories I find every other day. Islamic militants talking about the demise of the West. Fireworks blowing up people. Kids drowning in a car. And the best of all...Al Gore III getting arrested on drug charges and DUI (again). I was about to crawl into a hole and start crying like Zach does after a nice spitup when I found my inspiration...Joey Chestnut.

For those of you who do not know him, he is now a legend. Yesterday at the Annual Coney Island hot dog eating tourney, Joey Chestnut defeated the great Japanese eater Kobayashi by downing 66 hot dogs (and buns) to become the new World Record holder. Kobayashi could only manage 63. Anyone who can eat 66 HOT DOGS is a winner in my book. Congrats to Joey for bringin' the title back to the USA on the 4th of July...you couldn't have scripted it any better.

Good-Bye Miss Cassie

Cassidy (on the right) lived with me for several years in North Carolina and has been living with my parents for the last 5 years. They had to put her down this past week - she was 14 years old! She was a beautiful black lab and an awesome companion. Good-bye Miss Cassie :(

The Sailfisherman!

Went fishin' yesterday with a few buddies for the first time in about three years. Looks like I did OK, huh? It's one thing to gloat about a big fish you caught, but it is different when you actually have proof. According to the measurement, it was 80 inches from tip to tail. Thanks to Pimpbling for being there to take the picture and provide moral support while I was reelin' it in.

What Media Bias?

For years now, I have made it pretty clear that I think there is a liberal bias in the main-stream media. Whether you agree or disagree with this is really not important as I am (of course) correct! I would ask you to look at the following article published recently by NBC that shows a listing of political contributions by members of the media. After looking at the numbers, I realize that it proves my point pretty dramatically. According to my calculations, there were a total of 143 people listed who made political contributions from 2004 through early 2007. Of that 143, two made contributions to both parties, so I throw them out. Of the remaining 141 people, here was the breakdown:

Republican: 16
Democrat: 125

Hmmm. Now I know someone out there (probably MT or the Senator) is going to say this proves nothing, but the numbers don't lie...90% versus 10% is pretty clear. Here is the article:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/19113455

Shut up Phil

After shooting a million today at Oakmont and missing the cut, Phil Mickelson had the balls to blame the course for his recent wrist injury. I watched the replay of the interview and it was truly pathetic...I used to actually respect Phil. Maybe if Phil lifted some weights occasionally and didn't look like a slob with man boobs he might not get hurt. The other 154 players didn't seem to have any problems...

Buy Low, Sell High

Everyone that invests in the stock market knows that you are supposed to buy low and sell high. Yet the emotional nature of people always throws a monkey wrench in the gears of reason. This week was no exception as I tried to explain to a rather nice but unsophisticated client that he should sell one closed end fund to buy another. Below is the scenario. (note: if this kind of stock market talk bores you to death, just go buy some BTZ and quit reading)

Retired doctor. Income Investor who wants to get a better yield than your average 5% CD and is willing to take a little more risk to get it. I buy him some BCF late last year around 14.30 and he has been getting a 7.5% yield on his money. Now its trading at 16.30 and the yield is down to 6.7%. I suggest he sell the BCF, take a nice 11-12% profit (after commish on both ends) and buy some BTZ at 21.50 yielding about 8.5% and trading 6% below its NAV. It's been down the last two weeks due to the spike in interest rates, but it will go back up when rates straighten out.

So, does Joe Doctor listen to his smart financial advisor? Nope. Instead of taking advantage of an opportunity and making his situation better with more income AND more appreciation potential, he is going to wait. When BCF comes back down, he will complain that he didn't sell it at a good profit. In the meantime, he will continue getting his 6.7% and lose some principal while smart institutions and sophisticated investors make 8.5% on an appreciating asset. These are the same kind of people who I pleaded with to buy Merck in late 2004 at 27 with a 5% dividend yield. How would that have done? Well...more than a double with dividends reinvested and almost a double taking the dividends in cash.

And we wonder why Joe Q Public never seems to win in the stock market. Hmmmm.......

It's Open Week!

Once a year the wonderful tournament known as the US Open rolls around. This is the one tournament every year where professional golfers end up looking like a hack from the local muni course. And I love it. What else could be more exciting than watching Tiger, Phil, or Vijay make an 8 on a par 4? Ah yes...the long rough...the tight fairways...the fast greens...has it been a year already?

This years Open holds a special meaning for me as it's being held at Oakmont, about two hours from where I grew up. I was fortunate enough to attend the 1994 US Open the last time it was at Oakmont (the year Ernie Els won his first major) and I was incredibly impressed by the golf course. Oakmont is known for having the fastest greens in the country...no joke. These things are just ridiculous and I'm looking forward to the carnage. They have also removed over 5000 tress from the property, turning the course from a tree-lined to its original links design. While the Oakmont crowd isn't going to get any awards on Arbor Day, it is a very cool and ballsy change.

Word has it that Mr. Kris Douglas has procured some tickets for Friday's round. Enjoy the experience chief. I'll fly up for the next one at Oakmont...I promise.

The Big Merger

Unless you have been living in a hole the last two weeks, you should know that Wachovia Securities and A.G. Edwards will be merging later this year. I guess I have lots of mixed emotions about it. First of all, it is really sad to see a company with such a rich tradition and excellent reputation disappear. A.G. Edwards has been around for 120 years and until recently was always run by a member of the Edwards family. The first non-family member to run the company was Bob Bagby, who took over in 2001. While Bob was very adamant to the employees about our desire to stay an independent company, it seems that behind the scenes he was pulling a Nick Saban on all of us, preparing the company to be bought. While I and a majority of the AG Edwards advisors hope he rots in hell for destroying our nice company, I guess there are some positives to being the second largest brokerage firm in the US.

So, I have decided to stop bitching and whining about it, as I have most of the last 10 days. I had a very good lunch conversation yesterday with Mr. Hickman that gave me some different perspective on the subject. I also had another good conversation with Joel Brookman around 4pm yesterday that have led me to be more positive. I mean...what can I really do at this point? I could complain about how unfair it is...how "big business" is ruining the small companies...bla bla bla. But what would this really accomplish? The deal is done and the changes are going to take place regardless of my view on the subject. I might as well be positive and look on the bright side. I can't control what happens day-to-day in the stock market so why is this any different? Life goes on and I guess I need to be positive about the bright future ahead.

I would however like to take a five minute break from that bright future one day to hold Bob Bagby's head underwater. Five minutes is all it would take and I think I would feel much better...

Zach's Baptism

The little man got baptized yesterday. I just HAD to post this picture of Z in his little white tux. And yes...that is a little bit of hair that is starting to show up on his head!