Thursday, October 30, 2008
Oh no.....
No, I'm not thinking about Barack Obama and how absolutely scary it is that he could be President shortly. My Sony bigscreen's picture went on the fritz yesterday morning and I now realize how crappy life is without a bigscreen. I am so spoiled. I am also turning 35 tomorrow, which doesn't seem to bother me nearly as much as the TV issue. More on the political statements this weekend, grasshoppers!
Friday, October 17, 2008
Investing 101
Let me know who made what money this week on my suggestion. Hopefully SOMEONE out there made a few bucks cause I made a killing this week....I bought QLD at 30 on Friday last week and sold it Tuesday at 42. Bought it back yesterday at 30.50 and sold it today at 36. Sure I got lucky this time, but with the way things have been in the market lately, I was way overdue for some good luck.
For those longer-term investors out there (which I normally am, by the way...this was a rare trading move that I usually don't have the balls to do), here is a great opinion piece that Warren Buffett wrote in today's New York Times...this is exactly the way you should be thinking right now if you are a long-term investor....
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/17/opinion/17buffett.html?_r=1&ref=opinion&oref=slogin
For those longer-term investors out there (which I normally am, by the way...this was a rare trading move that I usually don't have the balls to do), here is a great opinion piece that Warren Buffett wrote in today's New York Times...this is exactly the way you should be thinking right now if you are a long-term investor....
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/17/opinion/17buffett.html?_r=1&ref=opinion&oref=slogin
Monday, October 13, 2008
Take the Money and Run
So you thought I was crazy on Friday, huh? Man do I love it when I am right! Granted, it doesn't always happen, but it sure feels good when I pick it right and actually act on it. Yep...I followed my own advice on Friday and bought QLD at 30 and DDM at about 31. Now my fellow grasshoppers... here is another lesson in making money and it goes something like this...
Bulls make money, Bears make money, and pigs get slaughtered. Don't go out and be a big pig and try to double your money on these things...take some profits. In my case, I think there might be a little more upside follow through tomorrow morning, but I plan on selling at least half of my investment tomorrow. These types of rallies don't happen often, the economy still sucks, and if you can make a 25% or 30% return in 2 days that is 2 years of good work...sell and live to fight another day. Either that or sell half and set a downside stop on the rest at maybe 20 or 25% gain...you can always buy back in when it comes back down.
School is now out.....good luck Daniel-son....
Bulls make money, Bears make money, and pigs get slaughtered. Don't go out and be a big pig and try to double your money on these things...take some profits. In my case, I think there might be a little more upside follow through tomorrow morning, but I plan on selling at least half of my investment tomorrow. These types of rallies don't happen often, the economy still sucks, and if you can make a 25% or 30% return in 2 days that is 2 years of good work...sell and live to fight another day. Either that or sell half and set a downside stop on the rest at maybe 20 or 25% gain...you can always buy back in when it comes back down.
School is now out.....good luck Daniel-son....
Thursday, October 09, 2008
Time to Buy
Yeah...I know...are you friggin NUTS Todd? Why in the hell would I want to buy any stock right now? My response to that is...why not? The market is ridiculously oversold, pessimism is high, the future looks grim. All classic signs of at least a short term bottom in the market. This situation just screams for someone to crush all the shorts out there.
So, if you are a long-term investor (3 years or longer) and have extra cash laying around that you don't plan on needing in the near future, you need to back up the truck here and buy. I know this runs opposite to what the emotional part of your brain says, but your emotional brain gets you in trouble when you are trying to make a rational decision. Sure, you might lose money over the next day or two, but I am guessing you will make money in the next week when we get the huge oversold rally that is just waiting out there....I wouldn't be surprised to see a short term oversold 1000 point rally by next week.
So here is what you do grasshopper. Go buy some QLD between 32-33, DDM between 33-34 or SSO between 29-30 tomorrow morning and dont look at it for a week. Look at it next Friday and see how much money you have made. Could I be wrong...sure. But I am gonna bet I am right. I am even gonna write a reminder on my calendar for next Friday to see if I was right or wrong so I can say "I told you so". Even if I am wrong, does anyone out there really think the stock market won't be higher than it is now in 3 years? The clouds will part, the hurricane will wind down and life will go on. Time to step up to the plate people...
So, if you are a long-term investor (3 years or longer) and have extra cash laying around that you don't plan on needing in the near future, you need to back up the truck here and buy. I know this runs opposite to what the emotional part of your brain says, but your emotional brain gets you in trouble when you are trying to make a rational decision. Sure, you might lose money over the next day or two, but I am guessing you will make money in the next week when we get the huge oversold rally that is just waiting out there....I wouldn't be surprised to see a short term oversold 1000 point rally by next week.
So here is what you do grasshopper. Go buy some QLD between 32-33, DDM between 33-34 or SSO between 29-30 tomorrow morning and dont look at it for a week. Look at it next Friday and see how much money you have made. Could I be wrong...sure. But I am gonna bet I am right. I am even gonna write a reminder on my calendar for next Friday to see if I was right or wrong so I can say "I told you so". Even if I am wrong, does anyone out there really think the stock market won't be higher than it is now in 3 years? The clouds will part, the hurricane will wind down and life will go on. Time to step up to the plate people...
Some Political Humor
Thanks to my fellow stressed out Financial Advisor Kris for this one. No matter what side of the political fence you sit, this one is hilarious. Enjoy.
http://www.peteyandpetunia.com/VoteHere/VoteHere.htm
http://www.peteyandpetunia.com/VoteHere/VoteHere.htm
Saturday, October 04, 2008
Some Perspective on the Markets/ Economy
With all the crap that is going on these days in the financial markets, I figured I would post something to give you, my loyal readers, my perspective on things. As with anything, nobody is ever right 100% of the time on everything, but I think these assumptions are at least in the ballpark.
1) The bailout/rescue bill. I think this bill will help the economy down the road, but it isn't going to help in the near-term. While I applaud Paulson for the effort, this doesn't magically solve all our problems today. As much as we love instant gratification in our country, we will need some patience on this one. I don't see this thing up-and-running at full speed for a few months.....meaning early 2009. Until then, things will probably not be getting better.
2) The stock market. Short term(meaning Monday) I think we are going to see another really bad day. I think we will see the Dow Jones go under 10,000 in the next week or two. More companies will go under in the near future. But remember one thing on the stock market...the market always turns around before the economy does...ALWAYS!
3) Credit. If you live on credit, you better learn how to tighten your belt. The days of easy borrowing is gone for a while. While I am not sure how bad it will get, don't plan on borrowing except for the major ticket items like cars and houses. Everyone had a big credit party the last 5 years and the hangover is finally here....and it's looking like a bad hangover.
4) Investments. First of all, DO NOT panic and do something stupid like pull your money out of the bank and put it under the mattress. The world is not going to end tomorrow. The banking system isn't going to fail and we are not going to end up resembling a third world country. If you are young (meaning you have at least 10 year to retirement) do not pull all your money out of stocks and go into cash in your 401k right now. I know this seems like a smart thing to do, but it isn't. Here's what I mean....
If you move to cash, you are going to get what...2% per year on your cash? Lets say this is a bad slowdown and it takes two years for the market to turn around. You will get a 4% return in cash over two years. You might very well lose more money by leaving things as they are in stocks. BUT...when things turn around, it is not unusual to have a 20% move up in the stock market in a recovery. This up move gets you right back on track to your long-term goals. Plus...you are buying lots of shares of those mutual funds at cheap prices now. Remember...you don't need this money today...you need it later so chill out and let things go.
If you are closer to retirement, also do not panic. Just start adding your monthly 401k contributions into bond funds now instead of stock funds. This will weight you more conservatively as you approach retirement in the next few years. If you are already retired, you probably don't (or shouldn't) have all your money in stocks. Everyone is different, but a 50/50 mix of stock and bonds is a good starting point for someone entering retirement right now.
REMEMBER...the world is not going to end next week...have a cool head and just ride things out. If you feel like you need more security, add a little more you your savings account or money market just to have that extra cushion. If your 401k balance freaks you out, just don't look at it...put it right in the drawer when it shows up in the next few weeks, cause it's gonna be an ugly one.
DISCLAIMER: My posting wasn't meant to freak anyone out, I just want to make sure everyone realizes something...things aren't going to turn around immediately now that the rescue bill has passed. There will be some tough times coming for everyone, but things will improve and life will go on in the end. And (hopefully) people will learn from their mistakes and not repeat them...
1) The bailout/rescue bill. I think this bill will help the economy down the road, but it isn't going to help in the near-term. While I applaud Paulson for the effort, this doesn't magically solve all our problems today. As much as we love instant gratification in our country, we will need some patience on this one. I don't see this thing up-and-running at full speed for a few months.....meaning early 2009. Until then, things will probably not be getting better.
2) The stock market. Short term(meaning Monday) I think we are going to see another really bad day. I think we will see the Dow Jones go under 10,000 in the next week or two. More companies will go under in the near future. But remember one thing on the stock market...the market always turns around before the economy does...ALWAYS!
3) Credit. If you live on credit, you better learn how to tighten your belt. The days of easy borrowing is gone for a while. While I am not sure how bad it will get, don't plan on borrowing except for the major ticket items like cars and houses. Everyone had a big credit party the last 5 years and the hangover is finally here....and it's looking like a bad hangover.
4) Investments. First of all, DO NOT panic and do something stupid like pull your money out of the bank and put it under the mattress. The world is not going to end tomorrow. The banking system isn't going to fail and we are not going to end up resembling a third world country. If you are young (meaning you have at least 10 year to retirement) do not pull all your money out of stocks and go into cash in your 401k right now. I know this seems like a smart thing to do, but it isn't. Here's what I mean....
If you move to cash, you are going to get what...2% per year on your cash? Lets say this is a bad slowdown and it takes two years for the market to turn around. You will get a 4% return in cash over two years. You might very well lose more money by leaving things as they are in stocks. BUT...when things turn around, it is not unusual to have a 20% move up in the stock market in a recovery. This up move gets you right back on track to your long-term goals. Plus...you are buying lots of shares of those mutual funds at cheap prices now. Remember...you don't need this money today...you need it later so chill out and let things go.
If you are closer to retirement, also do not panic. Just start adding your monthly 401k contributions into bond funds now instead of stock funds. This will weight you more conservatively as you approach retirement in the next few years. If you are already retired, you probably don't (or shouldn't) have all your money in stocks. Everyone is different, but a 50/50 mix of stock and bonds is a good starting point for someone entering retirement right now.
REMEMBER...the world is not going to end next week...have a cool head and just ride things out. If you feel like you need more security, add a little more you your savings account or money market just to have that extra cushion. If your 401k balance freaks you out, just don't look at it...put it right in the drawer when it shows up in the next few weeks, cause it's gonna be an ugly one.
DISCLAIMER: My posting wasn't meant to freak anyone out, I just want to make sure everyone realizes something...things aren't going to turn around immediately now that the rescue bill has passed. There will be some tough times coming for everyone, but things will improve and life will go on in the end. And (hopefully) people will learn from their mistakes and not repeat them...
Tuesday, September 16, 2008
A Sad Day....
Why was yesterday such a sad day? I know what you guys are thinking...the stock market was down 500 points yesterday and we are in the middle of the largest financial crisis since the great depression...Fannie and Freddie go under, followed by Lehman Brothers and now maybe even insurance giant AIG. Surprisingly, that is NOT why yesterday was such a sad day.
Yesterday marked the passing of Richard Wright, one of the original founding members of Pink Floyd. Since my college days I have been a huge fan of Floyd and while I was probably a little late to the show, I feel that they were one of the most influential and important bands in the history of rock music. To this day I still kick myself for not going to the Pink Floyd Division Bell tour in Cleveland in the early 90s. RIP Richard.....
http://www.cnn.com/2008/SHOWBIZ/Music/09/15/obit.wright.ap/index.html
Yesterday marked the passing of Richard Wright, one of the original founding members of Pink Floyd. Since my college days I have been a huge fan of Floyd and while I was probably a little late to the show, I feel that they were one of the most influential and important bands in the history of rock music. To this day I still kick myself for not going to the Pink Floyd Division Bell tour in Cleveland in the early 90s. RIP Richard.....
http://www.cnn.com/2008/SHOWBIZ/Music/09/15/obit.wright.ap/index.html
Thursday, September 04, 2008
Political Stuff
Yep...it's that time again. It happens every four years. I get really irritated for a few months every time I turn on the TV. Must be a presidential election year! As you all know, I am a McCain/Palin supporter and a Republican. I am not a huge fan of McCain, but I have to be honest and say I am really impressed with Sarah Palin as the VP choice. Obviously, not everyone out there feels the same as I do but thats ok...someone has to be right and someone has to be wrong...
Below I have posted a rant from last week that was posted on youtube by Diddy. Yes...THAT Diddy....Puff Daddy..or P. Diddy..or whatever the hell his name is these days. I know there was some type of half-assed apology this week, but today was the first time I saw it and it makes me want to vomit. I could go on about how inappropriate and hateful and pathetic this is, but I think it is best left to Diddy himself to stick his foot in his own mouth. Mr. Obama needs to tell Diddy to chill out because this type of ridiculous shit just shows how ignorant he is. Make sure you watch the whole thing as the last 20-30 seconds is the most bizarre/stupid part....
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3UQ_ZO636HI
Below I have posted a rant from last week that was posted on youtube by Diddy. Yes...THAT Diddy....Puff Daddy..or P. Diddy..or whatever the hell his name is these days. I know there was some type of half-assed apology this week, but today was the first time I saw it and it makes me want to vomit. I could go on about how inappropriate and hateful and pathetic this is, but I think it is best left to Diddy himself to stick his foot in his own mouth. Mr. Obama needs to tell Diddy to chill out because this type of ridiculous shit just shows how ignorant he is. Make sure you watch the whole thing as the last 20-30 seconds is the most bizarre/stupid part....
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3UQ_ZO636HI
Must have just been a typo....
Did anyone see the story about the mayor of Detroit today? I guess this guy is being forced to resign over some rather "questionable" things he did. I have attached the article here from CNN:
http://www.cnn.com/2008/CRIME/09/04/detroit.mayor/index.html
Does anyone notice something odd about this article? No? It would be easy to not notice this while reading the article, but there is no mention of his party affiliation...especially during our present "politics all the time" news schedules. One guess what party he belongs to? Yep, thats right...he's a Democrat.
It's funny how public officials like Larry Craig and Mark Foley are immediately revealed as Republicans when they do something wrong, but somehow this guy avoids being labeled a Democrat when he is a scumbag. I actually had to go to Wikipedia to find out which party he belonged to. I also read two other articles from different sources...they also strangely avoided mentioning he was a Democrat. Where was the only place I saw an article showing he was a Democrat? Yep...Fox News. At least Rupert's boys are being honest....
http://www.cnn.com/2008/CRIME/09/04/detroit.mayor/index.html
Does anyone notice something odd about this article? No? It would be easy to not notice this while reading the article, but there is no mention of his party affiliation...especially during our present "politics all the time" news schedules. One guess what party he belongs to? Yep, thats right...he's a Democrat.
It's funny how public officials like Larry Craig and Mark Foley are immediately revealed as Republicans when they do something wrong, but somehow this guy avoids being labeled a Democrat when he is a scumbag. I actually had to go to Wikipedia to find out which party he belonged to. I also read two other articles from different sources...they also strangely avoided mentioning he was a Democrat. Where was the only place I saw an article showing he was a Democrat? Yep...Fox News. At least Rupert's boys are being honest....
Monday, September 01, 2008
Hanna, Ike and the Wagon
The good news is that Gustav missed us here in South Florida...just a little rain and some small breezes. Unfortunately, I see that Hurricane Hanna and the newly formed Tropical Storm Ike are both heading this way in the next week...Hanna around Thursday and Ike toward the weekend. Just to be safe, I ran out to Home Depot to pick up a few needed Hurricane preparedness items.
As for Cheryl and I, we had a great time last night in Jupiter...dinner was excellent as expected and the drinks went down pretty smooth too. That being said, Cheryl and I have decided to jump on the wagon for a couple of weeks to dry out. We seem to have been enjoying a few too many beers and bottles of wine recently and have been feeling crappy/lazy the last few weeks. I am sure everyone knows that "stuck in a rut" feeling and we both have decided to chill on the beverages for a while. Lets hope that Hanna and Ike stay away from the Margarita Lounge the next week or we might be falling off that wagon...there isn't a whole lot to do on those stormy nights without power when you know you don't have to work the next day....wish us luck!
As for Cheryl and I, we had a great time last night in Jupiter...dinner was excellent as expected and the drinks went down pretty smooth too. That being said, Cheryl and I have decided to jump on the wagon for a couple of weeks to dry out. We seem to have been enjoying a few too many beers and bottles of wine recently and have been feeling crappy/lazy the last few weeks. I am sure everyone knows that "stuck in a rut" feeling and we both have decided to chill on the beverages for a while. Lets hope that Hanna and Ike stay away from the Margarita Lounge the next week or we might be falling off that wagon...there isn't a whole lot to do on those stormy nights without power when you know you don't have to work the next day....wish us luck!
Sunday, August 31, 2008
Labor Day Weekend (whats happenin lately)
Pattymelt is in town for the Labor Day weekend visiting her favorite grandson Zach. She came in yesterday and seems to be enjoying her time with the big man. With Patty around, Cheryl and I are taking off this afternoon for a little alone time. We are heading up to the Jupiter Beach Resort (about 40 minutes north of here) for the night and plan on having dinner tonight at Jettys.
I see Gustav is gonna kick the hell out of the Gulf Coast sometime tomorrow. It looks like this one could be worse than Katrina in terms of winds. (remember Katrina weakened right before landfall) Hopefully it will hit a less populated area west of New Orleans.
As for us, we are watching Tropical Storm Hanna a little closer these days as we are in the "cone" as of now. While the hurricane center says it will miss us, I am always a little skeptical of these last minute turns....if they miss the timing by 6-8 hours we are gonna get hit. The good news is that it is at least 4 days out and a lot can happen in the interim period.
I see that McCain chose Sarah Palin as his running mate, which I think is great. Sure, she doesn't have much experience, but neither does Obama...so I see that as a wash. At least she has some executive experience being a governor, which is something that Obama can't say. Her choice as VP should definitely help McCain appeal to the Republican base as she is pretty conservative. And her personal story is pretty cool...
Looks like the Dolphins are now down to the 53 man roster as they did final cuts yesterday. Reagan Mauia and Justin Peele were the big cuts, neither which would be considered a big surprise in my book. I like the fact that they kept 6 receivers, most of which are young guys. I also like the fact that they just gave Ricky Williams a one-year extension as I think he is gonna have a big year in 2008...as long as he stays away from Zulu Puff.
Well..thats it for now Margarita Drinkers. Wishing everyone a safe and happy Labor Day weekend....stay outta trouble and don't let your meat loaf.....
I see Gustav is gonna kick the hell out of the Gulf Coast sometime tomorrow. It looks like this one could be worse than Katrina in terms of winds. (remember Katrina weakened right before landfall) Hopefully it will hit a less populated area west of New Orleans.
As for us, we are watching Tropical Storm Hanna a little closer these days as we are in the "cone" as of now. While the hurricane center says it will miss us, I am always a little skeptical of these last minute turns....if they miss the timing by 6-8 hours we are gonna get hit. The good news is that it is at least 4 days out and a lot can happen in the interim period.
I see that McCain chose Sarah Palin as his running mate, which I think is great. Sure, she doesn't have much experience, but neither does Obama...so I see that as a wash. At least she has some executive experience being a governor, which is something that Obama can't say. Her choice as VP should definitely help McCain appeal to the Republican base as she is pretty conservative. And her personal story is pretty cool...
Looks like the Dolphins are now down to the 53 man roster as they did final cuts yesterday. Reagan Mauia and Justin Peele were the big cuts, neither which would be considered a big surprise in my book. I like the fact that they kept 6 receivers, most of which are young guys. I also like the fact that they just gave Ricky Williams a one-year extension as I think he is gonna have a big year in 2008...as long as he stays away from Zulu Puff.
Well..thats it for now Margarita Drinkers. Wishing everyone a safe and happy Labor Day weekend....stay outta trouble and don't let your meat loaf.....
Wednesday, August 20, 2008
Goodbye Travis Daniels
It looks like Parcels and the Dolphins are pretty much cleaning house this year. First it was Zach Thomas...then Jason Taylor...then Jay Feely. Today it was Travis "I get burned constantly" Daniels. As you can tell, I am actually excited about him leaving as I never liked the guy as a player. He was a fourth rounder and we got a draft choice for him, so thats a gain in my book.
The bad news is that he went to Cleveland....sorry Hickman. Your GM must be blind and stupid because Travis Daniels is NOT the solution for you guys problems in the secondary. Trust me...you'll see in the first game he plays.
Speaking of football, I have decided to get involved in Cheryl's Fantasy Football group this year so everyone wish me luck...the draft is on Monday Night and I'm getting excited!
The bad news is that he went to Cleveland....sorry Hickman. Your GM must be blind and stupid because Travis Daniels is NOT the solution for you guys problems in the secondary. Trust me...you'll see in the first game he plays.
Speaking of football, I have decided to get involved in Cheryl's Fantasy Football group this year so everyone wish me luck...the draft is on Monday Night and I'm getting excited!
Friday, August 08, 2008
Why Obama Scares me
Some of you know that I have been stewing over this post for the last week or so. I figured it would be best if I didn't post my thoughts on Mr Obama's economic plan immediately so I have let it stew for a week. I've had a couple glasses of wine tonight and figured it needed to come out...so here goes....
I am not a fan of Barack Obama. I am also not a huge fan of John McCain, but I definitely see McCain as the lesser of two evils in the 2008 Presidential Election. Last weekend I was reading some articles on Obama and McCain's economic ideas and quite frankly, Obama's ideas scared the hell out of me. As I consider myself a well informed person on the economy, here is my opinion on three of Mr Obama's economic ideas that scared me the most:
1) Extend unemployment benefits to more people. What? We live in a consumer society where approximately 70% of our economy depends on people spending money to buy goods and services. How does it help our society by giving money to people that don't have jobs? How does giving away more money to unemployed people help us get out of an economic hole? Answer: it doesn't! Even Bill Clinton recognized this when he reduced unemployment benefits during his administration.
2) Tax the "Rich" people more. This is an even dumber idea. Lets give money to people with no jobs but lets increase the tax burden on the people who make the economy run (spend the money). I am willing to bet that the rich guy is gonna buy a lot more big-screen TVs and cars than the unemployed guy.
3) Increase the Minimum Wage from $6.50 to $9.50/hour. May sound like a good idea on the surface but does this make sense financially? Hell no. If you want to increase the minimum wage, that is fine with me...but it should be done slowly over time and there should be some type of link to inflation. Quickly increasing the minimum wage by 50% is going to cripple small businesses in this country...the same small businesses which provide so many jobs to American people. Think about it this way...what if your grocery or electric bill went up 50% overnight? And what will happen when that small business owner now has a 50% increase in his labor cost? Thats right...he is going to lay off workers because he can't afford to pay them. And how does that help the economy??
This exact same concept was rampant in the 1970s...tax the rich...give money away...high inflation...stagnant economy...I could go on and on but it was not a good time for our country. Now we sit here about to repeat the same mistakes with Mr Obama. And this doesn't even mention the crazy whack-job advisors that Obama had working for him up until a few months ago (remember that Reverend Wright dude...enough said).
My whole point here is that Barack Obama isn't anything new. He is a incredibly inexperienced guy who is a great talker...that much I will give him. But he is rehashing old ideas from the 1970s...ideas that didn't work then and most certainly won't work today.
Sure...John McCain is 257 years old and he is a grumpy old codger...I don't relate to him on many levels. But the guy has been around and has experience. I know what he stands for. He is much more middle-of-the-road than George Bush on many issues. And given the choice of one or the other, I am gonna go with guy who is an experienced driver...not the guy who just got his license two weeks ago.
I am not a fan of Barack Obama. I am also not a huge fan of John McCain, but I definitely see McCain as the lesser of two evils in the 2008 Presidential Election. Last weekend I was reading some articles on Obama and McCain's economic ideas and quite frankly, Obama's ideas scared the hell out of me. As I consider myself a well informed person on the economy, here is my opinion on three of Mr Obama's economic ideas that scared me the most:
1) Extend unemployment benefits to more people. What? We live in a consumer society where approximately 70% of our economy depends on people spending money to buy goods and services. How does it help our society by giving money to people that don't have jobs? How does giving away more money to unemployed people help us get out of an economic hole? Answer: it doesn't! Even Bill Clinton recognized this when he reduced unemployment benefits during his administration.
2) Tax the "Rich" people more. This is an even dumber idea. Lets give money to people with no jobs but lets increase the tax burden on the people who make the economy run (spend the money). I am willing to bet that the rich guy is gonna buy a lot more big-screen TVs and cars than the unemployed guy.
3) Increase the Minimum Wage from $6.50 to $9.50/hour. May sound like a good idea on the surface but does this make sense financially? Hell no. If you want to increase the minimum wage, that is fine with me...but it should be done slowly over time and there should be some type of link to inflation. Quickly increasing the minimum wage by 50% is going to cripple small businesses in this country...the same small businesses which provide so many jobs to American people. Think about it this way...what if your grocery or electric bill went up 50% overnight? And what will happen when that small business owner now has a 50% increase in his labor cost? Thats right...he is going to lay off workers because he can't afford to pay them. And how does that help the economy??
This exact same concept was rampant in the 1970s...tax the rich...give money away...high inflation...stagnant economy...I could go on and on but it was not a good time for our country. Now we sit here about to repeat the same mistakes with Mr Obama. And this doesn't even mention the crazy whack-job advisors that Obama had working for him up until a few months ago (remember that Reverend Wright dude...enough said).
My whole point here is that Barack Obama isn't anything new. He is a incredibly inexperienced guy who is a great talker...that much I will give him. But he is rehashing old ideas from the 1970s...ideas that didn't work then and most certainly won't work today.
Sure...John McCain is 257 years old and he is a grumpy old codger...I don't relate to him on many levels. But the guy has been around and has experience. I know what he stands for. He is much more middle-of-the-road than George Bush on many issues. And given the choice of one or the other, I am gonna go with guy who is an experienced driver...not the guy who just got his license two weeks ago.
Tuesday, July 29, 2008
Gas Prices on their way down
Many of you have probably noticed something rather odd the last week...lower gas prices. Yeah I know...who gives a shit about paying 3.95 versus 4.20 per gallon, right? Hey..it's a start, right? I wrote in my post from July 17th (Anyone Remember Iraq) that prices were heading lower, but I figured it would take until the end of the year to reach $100/barrel. So far, we have gone from $147 to $122 on oil in about 2 weeks. I would look for $100 oil (and gas in the $3.50 range) by Labor Day on it's way down to $3.00 sometime next year. I would be willing to bet that the days of $2/gallon gas are long gone, but I don't see a reason we can't stabilize long-term in the $2-$3 range.
On the home front, I hope everyone has checked out Zach's blog that Cheryl created recently...she has been doing a GREAT job on it. If you haven't yet, go look at the most recent post with Zach in the bathtub....it is hilarious. The link is on the right side under the Links section. Hopefully you will enjoy as the blog develops. And don't forget to drop some comments and show Cheryl some love for all her efforts.
I would also be a bad person if I didn't mention Mr Hickman's new blog..Good Helmet. It's a good read for all you other football-crazy people like Chris. I have also added the link to his blog under Zach's blog link. Sorry Hickman...the big Z man takes top spot on the list...I am sure you understand.
On the home front, I hope everyone has checked out Zach's blog that Cheryl created recently...she has been doing a GREAT job on it. If you haven't yet, go look at the most recent post with Zach in the bathtub....it is hilarious. The link is on the right side under the Links section. Hopefully you will enjoy as the blog develops. And don't forget to drop some comments and show Cheryl some love for all her efforts.
I would also be a bad person if I didn't mention Mr Hickman's new blog..Good Helmet. It's a good read for all you other football-crazy people like Chris. I have also added the link to his blog under Zach's blog link. Sorry Hickman...the big Z man takes top spot on the list...I am sure you understand.
Sunday, July 20, 2008
Zach's Blog!!
For all of you who can't get enough Zach, he now has his very own blog! Cheryl set it up this afternoon and she will be adding pictures and info weekly. I have added the link to The Margarita Lounge links at the right. Please show some love to Zach and post a comment when you get a minute....
Greg Norman blows it...again!
Growing up, I was always a HUGE fan of Greg Norman. But, with his disappearance after the 1996 Masters, I figured my days of rooting on the Shark were over. Until this weekend. Who would have dreamed that 53 year-old Greg Norman would have a two shot lead heading into the final round of the Open Championship?
So..there I sat all day today on my couch...thinking of all the glory Greg was going to get after beating the youngsters today. I was sure that he was going to exercise the demons of his past and bring home a victory for the ages ala Jack Nicklaus at the Masters in 1986. I was sure that he was going to hit irons off the tees and show his wisdom by being conservative and just making pars.
Boy was I wrong. It was just like the 80s all over again. There was Greg...blasting drivers into the rough all day and having to scramble for pars. Now...I realize that even if he would have played conservatively, he might not have won. Patty Harrington played the last two holes amazingly and probably would have beat Greg there anyway...but at least he would have had a chance! You don't have much of a chance to win a major when you are four shots down on the 18th tee.
Don't get me wrong...I am very proud of what Greg did this week and it was great to see him turn the ol' clock back, even if only for a short time. But it was sad to see he hasn't learned his lesson from all the bad luck (and bad decisions) from his past.
So..there I sat all day today on my couch...thinking of all the glory Greg was going to get after beating the youngsters today. I was sure that he was going to exercise the demons of his past and bring home a victory for the ages ala Jack Nicklaus at the Masters in 1986. I was sure that he was going to hit irons off the tees and show his wisdom by being conservative and just making pars.
Boy was I wrong. It was just like the 80s all over again. There was Greg...blasting drivers into the rough all day and having to scramble for pars. Now...I realize that even if he would have played conservatively, he might not have won. Patty Harrington played the last two holes amazingly and probably would have beat Greg there anyway...but at least he would have had a chance! You don't have much of a chance to win a major when you are four shots down on the 18th tee.
Don't get me wrong...I am very proud of what Greg did this week and it was great to see him turn the ol' clock back, even if only for a short time. But it was sad to see he hasn't learned his lesson from all the bad luck (and bad decisions) from his past.
Thursday, July 17, 2008
Anyone remember Iraq?
I know that nobody seems to give a shit anymore, but does anyone remember Iraq? I know that the economy is crappy and gas prices are high and everyone in the world is doom-and-gloom these days, but what ever happened to all this press coverage of Iraq?
One year ago, Harry Reid and John Murtha were falling all over each other to condemn the troop surge in Iraq...Reid even going as far to say that "the war in Iraq is lost". It seems that everytime I turned on the news last summer, there was another naysayer out there saying how it wouldn't work. Fast forward one year and things are better. Sure, Iraq doesn't look like the United States yet, but nobody out there can deny that the situation is much better than it was a year ago. Security is better. Violence is down. Political reconciliation has improved. Yet...no mention of anything in the news about it. Luckily, I was able to find a few news articles stuffed in the corner of some websites that I am sure Harry Reid would hate:
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2008/jul/17/iraqs-security-remarkably-better/
http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/meast/07/17/iraq.afghanistan.ap/index.html?iref=newssearch
Wouldn't you think that with all the problems in the world right now, it would be nice to show a little good news occasionally? Now you all know why I refuse to watch the nightly news...it's just plain depressing. While all of the news outlets LOVE death and negativity, I prefer to be an optimist about things.....
1) The economy will improve. For the last hundred years (or more) there have always been ups and downs in our economy. Sometimes recessions come along...it's just a fact of life. Every time a slowdown or recession comes along, people say that "it's different this time". No it isn't. It might be six months...it might be a year or two...but things will improve.
2) Gas prices will come down. Sooner rather than later in my opinion. Crude got hammered the last week and broke a very key support level today. I expect $100 oil (maybe under) by the end of the year. I realize I am sticking my neck out here, but like I said...I am an optimist!
3) Every bank in the country in not going to fail. Just chill out...please. Even if it does, the cash is FDIC insured so you have nothing to worry about.
So...go have a beer. Kiss your wife/husband/girlfriend/boyfriend and go out to a nice dinner this weekend. Be an optimist....
One year ago, Harry Reid and John Murtha were falling all over each other to condemn the troop surge in Iraq...Reid even going as far to say that "the war in Iraq is lost". It seems that everytime I turned on the news last summer, there was another naysayer out there saying how it wouldn't work. Fast forward one year and things are better. Sure, Iraq doesn't look like the United States yet, but nobody out there can deny that the situation is much better than it was a year ago. Security is better. Violence is down. Political reconciliation has improved. Yet...no mention of anything in the news about it. Luckily, I was able to find a few news articles stuffed in the corner of some websites that I am sure Harry Reid would hate:
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2008/jul/17/iraqs-security-remarkably-better/
http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/meast/07/17/iraq.afghanistan.ap/index.html?iref=newssearch
Wouldn't you think that with all the problems in the world right now, it would be nice to show a little good news occasionally? Now you all know why I refuse to watch the nightly news...it's just plain depressing. While all of the news outlets LOVE death and negativity, I prefer to be an optimist about things.....
1) The economy will improve. For the last hundred years (or more) there have always been ups and downs in our economy. Sometimes recessions come along...it's just a fact of life. Every time a slowdown or recession comes along, people say that "it's different this time". No it isn't. It might be six months...it might be a year or two...but things will improve.
2) Gas prices will come down. Sooner rather than later in my opinion. Crude got hammered the last week and broke a very key support level today. I expect $100 oil (maybe under) by the end of the year. I realize I am sticking my neck out here, but like I said...I am an optimist!
3) Every bank in the country in not going to fail. Just chill out...please. Even if it does, the cash is FDIC insured so you have nothing to worry about.
So...go have a beer. Kiss your wife/husband/girlfriend/boyfriend and go out to a nice dinner this weekend. Be an optimist....
Sunday, July 06, 2008
I am a survivor!
After much fun, KD headed back to Pittsburgh yesterday afternoon. While we had a few cold beverages and some good times over his 3 day visit, we actually behaved ourselves and I avoided the major hangovers I had been dreading.
While I enjoyed having him down here for a few days, it is nice to have some peace and quiet around the house for once. I guess when you have a toddler running around all the time, you respect a quiet day or two much more. I stayed in last night, cooked some dinner and watched some TV. Today I think I will finally get to some of the long-overdue chores that have been building up on my "to-do" list for the past few months.
Cheryl and Zach are scheduled to fly back in tomorrow afternoon around 3:20pm. I am sure by then I will be looking forward to a little excitement around here....
While I enjoyed having him down here for a few days, it is nice to have some peace and quiet around the house for once. I guess when you have a toddler running around all the time, you respect a quiet day or two much more. I stayed in last night, cooked some dinner and watched some TV. Today I think I will finally get to some of the long-overdue chores that have been building up on my "to-do" list for the past few months.
Cheryl and Zach are scheduled to fly back in tomorrow afternoon around 3:20pm. I am sure by then I will be looking forward to a little excitement around here....
Monday, June 23, 2008
Rain Rain (and other stuff)
Is it ever going to stop raining in South Florida? I guess you either have it one way or the other around here. We have been bitching about the lack of rain for a year (water restrictions, reduced watering, etc) and now we get it all at once. The good news is my grass is the greenest it has been in a LONG time. The bad news is that it is really depressing. If we could get one day of sun...just one day...maybe it would help. But this type of gloom reminds me of Erie in the winter. Ugh....
I see that George Carlin died yesterday out in Cali. This is a true tragedy and day of mourning, especially for me. I always loved Carlin growing up and watched him whenever I could. Yes....even in "Bill and Ted's Excellent Adventure". Obviously the movies weren't his thing...he was first and foremost a stand-up comic. Seems like all the great comics from my childhood are dead...Sam Kinnison, George Carlin, Eddie Murphy. Oh yeah..Eddie is still alive and doing movies like "Daddy Daycare" so in terms of comedy he might as well have thrown a seven already.
I also see that Barack Obama is leading in the latest Presidential polls and I need to stop to vomit. Yep, I am already sick of it and the election isn't for another 4 1/2 months. Just so everyone knows how I feel, there is no way in hell I will ever vote for Barack Hussein Obama...ever. And it has nothing to do with his middle name. I really don't like the alternative choice (the old geezer), but in terms of policies at least I know where McCain stands on most things. Obama seems to be like Bill Clinton where he tells everyone what they want to hear and is real cloudy on the details. I realize that the old geezer doesn't have much of a chance here (I don't think Jesus Christ would have much of a chance at this point) , but I'm gonna go with my gut and stay away from the guy who has whacko preachers for spiritual advisors the last 20 years. At least McCain's wife is in the beer business. A war veteran and beer ALWAYS beats two lawyers in my book.
And FINALLY...I will be receiving a rare visit from the late, great K-Delish next week! NO..he isn't dead or anything...it just seems like it. It has been a few years since Mr. Douglas made his way down to Florida to see his old buddies, but he will be here on July 2nd for a few days. I am sure there will be some cold beverage consumption involved, but I realize we are both old married farts with kids so my excitement is somewhat tempered. We'll probably get all banged up the first night and complain about hangovers for the next three days....
I see that George Carlin died yesterday out in Cali. This is a true tragedy and day of mourning, especially for me. I always loved Carlin growing up and watched him whenever I could. Yes....even in "Bill and Ted's Excellent Adventure". Obviously the movies weren't his thing...he was first and foremost a stand-up comic. Seems like all the great comics from my childhood are dead...Sam Kinnison, George Carlin, Eddie Murphy. Oh yeah..Eddie is still alive and doing movies like "Daddy Daycare" so in terms of comedy he might as well have thrown a seven already.
I also see that Barack Obama is leading in the latest Presidential polls and I need to stop to vomit. Yep, I am already sick of it and the election isn't for another 4 1/2 months. Just so everyone knows how I feel, there is no way in hell I will ever vote for Barack Hussein Obama...ever. And it has nothing to do with his middle name. I really don't like the alternative choice (the old geezer), but in terms of policies at least I know where McCain stands on most things. Obama seems to be like Bill Clinton where he tells everyone what they want to hear and is real cloudy on the details. I realize that the old geezer doesn't have much of a chance here (I don't think Jesus Christ would have much of a chance at this point) , but I'm gonna go with my gut and stay away from the guy who has whacko preachers for spiritual advisors the last 20 years. At least McCain's wife is in the beer business. A war veteran and beer ALWAYS beats two lawyers in my book.
And FINALLY...I will be receiving a rare visit from the late, great K-Delish next week! NO..he isn't dead or anything...it just seems like it. It has been a few years since Mr. Douglas made his way down to Florida to see his old buddies, but he will be here on July 2nd for a few days. I am sure there will be some cold beverage consumption involved, but I realize we are both old married farts with kids so my excitement is somewhat tempered. We'll probably get all banged up the first night and complain about hangovers for the next three days....
Sunday, June 15, 2008
I'm wrong again...
Looks like I was wrong again about Tiger this week. Hey...at least I admit when I am wrong, right? I would be lying if I said that I was happy about him making that putt on 18 to force the payoff tomorrow. I would have much rather seen Rocco Mediate the journeyman/underdog pull off the biggest upset on the biggest stage to send Tiger packing, but I guess it wasn't meant to be today.
The good news is that the final round of a major was (for once) very exciting down the stretch. It seems like there has been a lack of drama recently on Sundays at the majors with no down-to-the-wire battles like today. To see Tiger gut it out on a bad knee was great. To see the longshot play the best golf of his life at age 45 to tie the best player in the world is great theater, there is no doubt about it.
Unfortunately, the bad news is that there is a Monday playoff, which I am not a fan of. The drama is gone on Monday...everyone is back at work...the crowds are gone from the golf course...and often times the air of excitement is gone when the two players tee it up on Monday morning. And in this case, I think Rocco's magic will be gone. Trust me...I hope it isn't and I would root for Rocco any day of the week. But I know that head-to-head Rocco vs. Tiger isn't probably going to be much to watch tomorrow. I hope I am again wrong tomorrow....
The good news is that the final round of a major was (for once) very exciting down the stretch. It seems like there has been a lack of drama recently on Sundays at the majors with no down-to-the-wire battles like today. To see Tiger gut it out on a bad knee was great. To see the longshot play the best golf of his life at age 45 to tie the best player in the world is great theater, there is no doubt about it.
Unfortunately, the bad news is that there is a Monday playoff, which I am not a fan of. The drama is gone on Monday...everyone is back at work...the crowds are gone from the golf course...and often times the air of excitement is gone when the two players tee it up on Monday morning. And in this case, I think Rocco's magic will be gone. Trust me...I hope it isn't and I would root for Rocco any day of the week. But I know that head-to-head Rocco vs. Tiger isn't probably going to be much to watch tomorrow. I hope I am again wrong tomorrow....
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