Whats going on...

It has been a rather busy week around the Margarita Lounge. A few things on my mind recently:

1) What the hell is going on with Hollywood celebrities? Ed McMahon, Farrah Fawcett, Michael Jackson, and now Billy Mays all die within a week. Crazy stuff...
2) Cheryl and I went to Naples last night and had a great time. It was really quiet, we had a GREAT steak dinner and got away for a little while. Zach got to stay with Mimi and Papa...
3) Cheryl's sister Dawn is coming into town on Thursday Night for the July 4th weekend. We are both looking forward to seeing her and catching up for a few days.
4) Gotta love 4 day work weeks. With July 4 falling on a Saturday this year, both Cheryl and I get Friday off...3 day weekends rock!

That is all for now...more soon.

Fear not stock lovers

Yeah...I know. You are worried because the S&P 500 went from 666 to 956 in a couple of months and it is now back under 900. Is it time to take profits and go back into cash you ask? My answer there would be a resounding "no". To find out why I say that, just answer these two questions for me....

1) Is the US Economy going into another depression?
2) Are the leading economic indicators better today than 6 months ago?

The correct answers here are no and yes. It is very typical to see conflicting news stories in the very early stages of a bull market. Once the news/earnings are all good and the recovery is underway and everyone wants back in the stock market, the S&P will be over 1000 and by then you have missed the easy money. In the short term I think we will see a low between 810-860 on the S&P 500 (10-15% pullback from the recent highs) but I don't see a return to the doom-and-gloom of early March when all the "experts" on CNBC were talking about nationalizing the banks and the new depression. Funny how silly people can look only three months later.

The good news here is that if you have missed the recent upturn, you can get in now and still see some nice upside in the next 6-12 months. You have already missed the real easy money, but you will still be ahead of all the "experts" still sitting on their hands while the fundamentals of the economy stabilize and start improving later this year and into 2010. Even if you put the money in corporate bonds funds, it's better than sitting in cash or US government bond funds right now. Trust me...

I agree with Bill Maher? WTF?

Wow. I never thought those words would ever come out of my mouth. For those of you unaware of who Bill Maher is, he is a liberal guy who does some type of show on HBO. Below is the entire five minute rant. Granted...he is still an out-in-left field guy who seems to think that all the world's problems are caused by big corporations. Yeah...all those big, bad corporations that employ all those MILLIONS OF PEOPLE. But I digress. Here is the link....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HWulnfog20c

"Cash For Clunkers"...say it aint so!

In addition to spending like drunken sailors for the past few months, I just read a story about the $4 Billion bill the Democrats in the House just passed for the "Cash for Clunkers" plan. No... I didn't make that name up...look it up online if you don't believe me!

Here is the jist of the program...if you own a car that is more than 8 years old and a gas guzzler, you can turn it in and get a voucher from the government for between $3,000 and $5,000 toward the purchase of a new car. The only restriction is that you can't buy a car for over $35,000 with the voucher. Am I the only person out there who thinks this is a completely STUPID idea with tons of potential for fraud? I understand the idea and I am sure that Al Gore is jumping for joy on how Obama and the Congress is saving the world here, but this is SO STUPID. Here's why this is such a stupid idea....

Go buy a piece of shit car today for $1,000 from a junkyard that barely runs. You take this car and turn it in for a $3,000 voucher on a new car. You just pocketed a $2,000 handout courtesy of the government towards your new car! I now understand why people cannot live within their means when they see the government set such a great example. Ugh...

Market Update

Well, as usual I was wrong on the short side and got crushed. The market just keeps going up and up without a correction to be found. I decided to pull the plug on my FAZ trade around 4.65 this week. As they say...don't fight the momentum. I am getting even more confident that this recovery is the real deal though as the days go by. I guess I could always be wrong on that too, but I just don't see how we are going to head back to 666 on the S&P 500 even with a big negative surprise. Hope all is well out there for all of you....more as I am inspired.....

The Margarita Lounge will live on!

I am proud to report that I have decided to keep the Margarita Lounge alive! With my regular use of Facebook, I have recently felt that the Margarita Lounge would end up a relic of the past. I have decide that they are just two very different animals.

Facebook tends to be good for quick updates of what's going on in my life. But I think the Margarita Lounge is a better venue for any "detail" stories as well as my occasional long rants about things in the world that piss me off. Thank you to everyone who told me I should keep it going.....

Rain Rain Go Away

Well, I guess we needed to get a little rain....but, we're tired of it now. Seems as though it's been raining for an entire week straight. Our entire back yard was literally under water this afternoon - the good news is that we won't have to turn the sprinkler system on for a week or so.

Market Update

Sorry for the lack of recent stock market commentary, loyal readers. I realize that most of you are probably not interested in this, but since I am and its my blog I can do what I want! Ha Ha.

Seriously though, I am VERY impressed with the recent move in the market off the March 6 lows. I can say with 95% certainty that we will not see the March lows again. The VIX is down below the Sept/Oct levels, yield spreads on bonds are tightening, and there is a growing realization that this is not going to be the "Great Depression #2". For those with a short memory, please read my April 6th entry where I mention hitting 900 on the S&P 500...I think we closed today at 903. I love tooting my own horn when I am right!

Long term I am still a big bull on our economy and the market. It wouldn't surprise me to see the S&P 500 near 1000 by the end of the year...maybe even a little higher. That being said, I think there is a strong case for an aggressive trader to make a few bucks here going short. After all, we have had a 35% run and no major pullback(considered 10% or more)...a situation that makes me a little nervous. So...I bought some FAZ today around 5. I have done this recently a few times and have been crushed, so you think I would learn, right? But I think I am right this time. I figure if I can get 6.5 to 7 out of it I will be happy...then I can go back into the market long at a cheaper level than we are right now and ride the wave into the end of the year. You could also do this with TZA, which I did for a few of my more aggressive clients today between 25-26.

Janes Addiction/NIN concert

After being a big fan of both Nine Inch Nails and Jane's Addiction for years, I was needless to say excited when this concert rolled around...there was NO WAY I was going to miss it considering the opening date of the tour was 15 minutes from my house. Last Night was as close to a religious experience as I get. While I would have liked to see both of them play longer (the West Palm Beach noise ordinance makes concerts end by 11pm) I was still very happy to see them play live finally. And considering it is Trent Reznor's last tour as NIN I am glad I got to see him before he hangs 'em up.

I posted a few links below to a guy who goes by bootlegbyeddie that recorded the concert. I have never met this guy and the audio is a little rough, but if you want to get an idea of what it was like last night, here are two songs from Janes and two from NIN for your listening and viewing pleasure:

NIN WISH

NIN HEAD LIKE A HOLE

JANES PIGS IN ZEN

JANES JANE SAYS (last song of the show)

End of the road for the Margarita Lounge?

After a few months of thought, I am considering shutting down the Margarita Lounge for good. I have found it harder and harder to get the time to update it on a regular basis. That and the fact that Facebook is now the preferred networking site has brought me to this point.

So...does anyone out there still read the ol' Margarita Lounge or should I throw it on the trash heap? Of course, Zach's site will remain as he is the man.

Another good article

Here is a great article everyone should read. I think it is an appropriate thing to talk about these days. This guy's point is right on. Didn't we get into this financial problem by borrowing too much money...now the government is doing the same. This article is a good one in that it shows what could happen down the road. Once you get past the first few paragraphs (which is a little over-the-top in the patriotism/the US is the best area) it gets better.

http://www.cnn.com/2009/POLITICS/04/16/shapiro.entrepreneurs/index.html

Time to get in....

For any of you out there who are wondering my thoughts on the market these days, the title of this post pretty much sums it up. Don't wait for the pullback to get back in because you will miss it. If you are crying at the value of your 401k, please resist the urge to go buy CDs or move it all into the money market. We have had a small rally the past month but dont listen to the talking heads saying to sell now and take what you can get. Hang in there because we have seen the worst of the market.

Gold is going to tank...the VIX is going to break 40...and when things look better it is going to be too late, you will have missed it. No longer do we rally one day and fall off a cliff for the next three. We have already priced in a major recession...any good or even moderate economic news is gonna send us higher...just look at all that money on the sidelines right now. When that money starts flowing in (and it already is), we are going much higher. The world is not going to end, we will eventually return to growth, and the United States will live to fight another day...trust me. When GM files for bankruptcy in the next few months, the market won't even budge because it is already priced in.

So you think I am crazy? Maybe. But I have put my money where my mouth is...in the market. I am 100% invested in the market. I had a 401k rollover check from Wachovia come in a few days ago and it went right into the market without a second thought. What are you waiting for? If you have at least a two year investment horizon (which means pretty much everyone does) you should be in or getting into this market now. If you are already in, relax...it will get better. End of sermon grasshoppers...and dont say I didn't tell you so when the S&P 500 is at 900 and you missed the 35% upside off the bottom....

More socialism coming...

Here is another article I read today about our current financial crisis. This type of stuff is really scary stuff. I know...I sound like a paranoid person, right? I'm not so sure anymore. I mean...do you really want to government having more control over you in future years? I know I sure don't. This type of stuff is a very slippery slope....

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123879833094588163.html

The road to Socialism...

I could go on and on for many paragraphs how outright wrong this bill is on so many levels. But, I just decided to let everyone read it and decide for themselves. If this is the way we are going with this government, I am VERY afraid of what the next step is....

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/politics/Beyond-AIG-A-Bill-to-let-Big-Government-Set-Your-Salary-42158597.html

JANES and NIN together this summer!

Can you tell I am excited? I just found out last night that one of my favorite bands of all time, Janes Addiction (all the originals) will be touring this summer with Trent Reznor and his crew, otherwise known as Nine Inch Nails. As a college student from the early 90s, I was always a big fan of both groups and have never had a chance to see either one live. Well...the day has finally come! The date is May 8th, which is the first date of the 2009 summer tour...right here in West Palm Beach! And to make things even better, it's on a Friday Night. And I am already hooked up with some sweet pavilion seats and a VIP pass courtesy of my bud Joel. And as if things couldn't get any better, they do. The week before this concert I get to see 311 at Sunfest...another favorite that I have never seen live. Life is good...

My Hero

I was reminded today that my husband is my hero, so I feel obliged to dedicate a post to him. Lucy was barking this afternoon while I was getting Zach ready for a post-car-wash bath. I looked out the back door and saw a 10 foot snake on the screened patio....well, okay, it might not have been quite 10 feet long...maybe 3 or 4 feet, but in my mind it was huge!

I should mention that I HATE snakes...I don't care if they are caged, or on TV, whatever - I don't have any desire to look at them or think about them. Had my hero not "taken care of" the snake, I would not open the back door, let the dog into the back yard, let Zach on the patio, had dinner on the porch, etc for a VERY LONG TIME. Not to mention the countless nights of nightmares I would've endured.

So - my hero got his trusty shovel and chased the snake out into the yard....I won't go into details but I will just say that the snake has been "dealt with" and I sit here now with the back sliding door open and a nice breeze blowing in. At least for one day my husband is being held upon a pedestal.

On the way soon...

I have wondered how long it would take for us to come up with this. Looks like the time frame is two to three years. Sweet!

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-1161274/Scientists-develop-mobile-phone-battery-charged-just-10-seconds.html

Chugga Chugga Chugga

The Party Train made it until 11pm on Saturday evening - pretty impressive considering that he and Todd got started early afternoon during lunch at Bradley's. Above you are viewing Sean's attempt at reddening the other side :)

He's got another day in paradise before heading back to Dreary Erie on Tuesday...then it will be time for the Margarita Lounge to prepare for the arrival of Jeff & Ta-Ta.

Party Train Fizzles on Friday Night!

We got a big let-down from the Party Train last night, who is in town for a long weekend. We were expecting the train to be chugging half the night - instead, he crashed at 9:30pm after a day of sun (obviously), several beers and some pizza. Perhaps tonight the Party Train will be able to get out of the station!!

What the HELL is he thinking

Ok...everyone who knows me knows that I dont like President Obama. But I was willing to give everyone the benefit of the doubt on certain things. I have finally reached my breaking point as this guy obviously has NO CLUE about what is going on in this economy and also has no solutions except nice cute speeches. Speeches are great, but there is a time to talk and then there is a time to actually do something...this would be the latter.

The economy is in the recessionary toilet. The stock market is tanking daily due to no confidence in the system. And this guy is out there talking about how important health care reform is and how it cant wait? WHAT THE HELL IS HE DOING? It's like the guy is still campaining. OK dude...we get it...you are now the President and you are an important person. Now DO SOMETHING productive. Health care and Energy are important issues, but they can wait a little while. At least Bush and Paulson acknowledged they were working on it...Obama doesn't seem to really give a shit. Maybe if he acted like he cared people would feel better. I know feeling better wont cause the economy to recover, but at least it would be a start....